Since 2007, the law of rising coal prices during the peak season has been broken for the first time. On July 29th, the reporter learned from the Qinhuangdao port and other aspects that under the influence of multiple factors such as the abundant reserves of power coal in the power plant and the increase in imported coal this summer, Qinhuangdao port coal prices have appeared for the first time in three years. It is reported that, except for Datong Mikuma, which has a calorific value of 6,000 kcal, the price of other coal species has fallen by RMB 10/t from last week.
However, Shenyin Wanguoguo analysts believe that under the general background of the overall balance of coal supply and demand, there is no significant price drop caused by the increase in coal supply.
During the peak season, the price of coal dropped by RMB 10/t. In July, the peak of peak summer electricity demand coincided with the peak usage rate of coal. However, at the onset of the heat wave at the beginning of July, the coal price of Qinhuangdao port has shown no signs of rising. The reporter noted that on July 2, the average price of 4,500 kcal calorific coal in the Qinhuangdao port fell by RMB 5/t last week.
"Power plant inventory is very abundant, far stronger than last year. This is the main reason why the coal price does not rise or fall in the peak season," said senior coal expert Li Chaolin.
According to statistics from Zhongneng Power, as of July 26, the nation's direct power supply plant had a coal inventory of 6.81915 million tons, and the number of available days was 19 days, an increase of 4.091 million tons and one day from the beginning of July. It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of July, the coal inventory of power plants was also higher than in previous years.
At the same time, the reporter also learned that the Qinhuangdao Port coal inventories have also increased compared to previous. As of July 29, the stock volume was 6.736 million tons, and on the 2nd of July, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port was 5.874 million tons.
It is because of the abundant supply that coal prices have remained stable since the peak season, and it is reasonable to see a decline today.
In this regard, the monitoring report released by Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that last week (July 19 to 25) the price of coal at the location of the listed company had a general price correction. Among them, Datong Coal, China Coal Energy and other large companies' coal prices fell by 5 yuan / ton to 15 yuan / ton; and some small and medium-sized companies, coal prices fell by 20 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton.
Rigid demand ensures that coal prices are not broken But for the future trend of the coal industry, most analysts in the industry are relatively rational. Shenyin Wanguo Guoguo believes that under the overall background of coal supply and demand balance, China's coal price is also rigid, so it is not The existence of an increase in the supply of coal triggered a sharp decline in prices.
According to the analysis, a 10% drop in the spot price of coal is already within the market's expectations, so now is the time to “reduce expectations rather than exceed expectationsâ€. . At the same time, analysts emphasized that the high base of coal consumption will determine the rigid characteristics of coal price adjustment. Analysts said that the overall trend of coal prices in the next 3-5 years will maintain a steady upward trend.
Shenyinuo Wanguo analysts further stated that due to the constraints of transport capacity in 2011, the import volume in the eastern coastal areas will remain at the level of about 80 million tons, a slight decrease compared with 2010; but 80 million tons of net imports will still make international coal prices To maintain a high level, the current pattern of supply and demand has not been fundamentally broken.
However, Shenyin Wanguoguo analysts believe that under the general background of the overall balance of coal supply and demand, there is no significant price drop caused by the increase in coal supply.
During the peak season, the price of coal dropped by RMB 10/t. In July, the peak of peak summer electricity demand coincided with the peak usage rate of coal. However, at the onset of the heat wave at the beginning of July, the coal price of Qinhuangdao port has shown no signs of rising. The reporter noted that on July 2, the average price of 4,500 kcal calorific coal in the Qinhuangdao port fell by RMB 5/t last week.
"Power plant inventory is very abundant, far stronger than last year. This is the main reason why the coal price does not rise or fall in the peak season," said senior coal expert Li Chaolin.
According to statistics from Zhongneng Power, as of July 26, the nation's direct power supply plant had a coal inventory of 6.81915 million tons, and the number of available days was 19 days, an increase of 4.091 million tons and one day from the beginning of July. It is worth mentioning that at the beginning of July, the coal inventory of power plants was also higher than in previous years.
At the same time, the reporter also learned that the Qinhuangdao Port coal inventories have also increased compared to previous. As of July 29, the stock volume was 6.736 million tons, and on the 2nd of July, the coal inventory of Qinhuangdao Port was 5.874 million tons.
It is because of the abundant supply that coal prices have remained stable since the peak season, and it is reasonable to see a decline today.
In this regard, the monitoring report released by Guotai Junan Securities pointed out that last week (July 19 to 25) the price of coal at the location of the listed company had a general price correction. Among them, Datong Coal, China Coal Energy and other large companies' coal prices fell by 5 yuan / ton to 15 yuan / ton; and some small and medium-sized companies, coal prices fell by 20 yuan / ton to 30 yuan / ton.
Rigid demand ensures that coal prices are not broken But for the future trend of the coal industry, most analysts in the industry are relatively rational. Shenyin Wanguo Guoguo believes that under the overall background of coal supply and demand balance, China's coal price is also rigid, so it is not The existence of an increase in the supply of coal triggered a sharp decline in prices.
According to the analysis, a 10% drop in the spot price of coal is already within the market's expectations, so now is the time to “reduce expectations rather than exceed expectationsâ€. . At the same time, analysts emphasized that the high base of coal consumption will determine the rigid characteristics of coal price adjustment. Analysts said that the overall trend of coal prices in the next 3-5 years will maintain a steady upward trend.
Shenyinuo Wanguo analysts further stated that due to the constraints of transport capacity in 2011, the import volume in the eastern coastal areas will remain at the level of about 80 million tons, a slight decrease compared with 2010; but 80 million tons of net imports will still make international coal prices To maintain a high level, the current pattern of supply and demand has not been fundamentally broken.
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