A year ago, Rogers' prediction that oil prices were to “break 100†was also dismissed as a grandstanding. One year later, the price of oil has stabilized above US$120, almost equal to US$130, and even institutions such as Goldman Sachs look up to US$200. . When does the oil price rise? How high the level of oil prices will really have a depressing effect on consumption? There are still disagreements among various agencies and analysts.
A week ago, Goldman Sachs, the most influential Wall Street investment bank in the commodity market, issued a report announcing that it will raise its forecast for the average New York oil price in the second half of the year to US$141. The previous week, Goldman's analyst Murti also dished out the "high price of oil is likely to impact the $ 200 mark in the next two years."
On Tuesday, Credit Suisse also announced that it will increase its forecast for the 2008 US crude oil futures price from US$91 to US$120 per barrel. Credit Suisse also announced that it will increase its oil price forecast for 2009 to US$110, which was previously expected to be US$90.
The famous American hedge fund manager Pickens predicted on the 20th visit by CNBC that the price of oil will rise to 150 US dollars this year. Pickens is considered one of the most influential investors in the crude oil futures market. He said that the U.S. Congress failed to launch an effective energy policy, which made the U.S. overly dependent on oil imports fall into the "defective" aspect of energy. He said that the government's promotion of using ethanol additives is "ridiculous" and does not agree with the presidential candidate's proposal to suspend the levy of gasoline taxes.
Lehman's analyst Morse believes that "as the supply and demand level gradually eliminate the uncertainty," commodity prices may begin to decline around the end of. He said that high commodity prices "cannot continue all the time." However, before this, taking into account the continued inflow of short-term funds, the commodity market may continue to rise. He expects that oil prices may soar to as high as 200 U.S. dollars before a downward adjustment occurs.
A report by the London-based Global Energy Research Center (CGES) this week pointed out that under the circumstance that neither OPEC nor other oil-producing countries increase production, only the global economy will have a "deep and broad" recession to curb oil prices. Innovation is high. CGES is an energy consulting company founded by the former Saudi oil minister.
The report said that if oil prices stop to soar, there must be a far-reaching and widespread economic recession, which in turn will curb the oil consumption of Asian developing and developed countries.
CGES expects the average price of Brent crude this year to be $113 per barrel. However, if the economy suffers a serious recession, the price will drop to $102.20. CGES said that once oil prices begin to fall, the decline may be deep.
Well-known energy fund manager Tim Guinness, chief investment officer of the Guinness Atkinson Fund, said this week that international oil prices may hit $200 a barrel in the next two years, after which demand will be significantly suppressed. The fund expects the average price of crude oil in New York this year to be 95 to 100 US dollars, previously forecast to be about 85 US dollars.
"I believe more and more, it is necessary to wait until the oil price first rises to 200 US dollars in order to form a sufficient pressure on the demand." Guinness said. He predicted that by 2010 oil prices will soar to 200 US dollars a barrel, the average price of that year is expected to be 160 US dollars. Guinness said that the growth in demand in developing countries far exceeds the decline in demand in developed countries. At the same time, the crude oil supply situation in 2009 and 2010 was grave, mainly due to weak supply growth in non-OPEC oil-producing countries.
200 US dollars Guinness, a well-known energy fund manager, predicts that by 2010 oil prices will soar to 200 US dollars a barrel, the average price of that year is expected to be 160 US dollars.
A week ago, Goldman Sachs, the most influential Wall Street investment bank in the commodity market, issued a report announcing that it will raise its forecast for the average New York oil price in the second half of the year to US$141. The previous week, Goldman's analyst Murti also dished out the "high price of oil is likely to impact the $ 200 mark in the next two years."
On Tuesday, Credit Suisse also announced that it will increase its forecast for the 2008 US crude oil futures price from US$91 to US$120 per barrel. Credit Suisse also announced that it will increase its oil price forecast for 2009 to US$110, which was previously expected to be US$90.
The famous American hedge fund manager Pickens predicted on the 20th visit by CNBC that the price of oil will rise to 150 US dollars this year. Pickens is considered one of the most influential investors in the crude oil futures market. He said that the U.S. Congress failed to launch an effective energy policy, which made the U.S. overly dependent on oil imports fall into the "defective" aspect of energy. He said that the government's promotion of using ethanol additives is "ridiculous" and does not agree with the presidential candidate's proposal to suspend the levy of gasoline taxes.
Lehman's analyst Morse believes that "as the supply and demand level gradually eliminate the uncertainty," commodity prices may begin to decline around the end of. He said that high commodity prices "cannot continue all the time." However, before this, taking into account the continued inflow of short-term funds, the commodity market may continue to rise. He expects that oil prices may soar to as high as 200 U.S. dollars before a downward adjustment occurs.
A report by the London-based Global Energy Research Center (CGES) this week pointed out that under the circumstance that neither OPEC nor other oil-producing countries increase production, only the global economy will have a "deep and broad" recession to curb oil prices. Innovation is high. CGES is an energy consulting company founded by the former Saudi oil minister.
The report said that if oil prices stop to soar, there must be a far-reaching and widespread economic recession, which in turn will curb the oil consumption of Asian developing and developed countries.
CGES expects the average price of Brent crude this year to be $113 per barrel. However, if the economy suffers a serious recession, the price will drop to $102.20. CGES said that once oil prices begin to fall, the decline may be deep.
Well-known energy fund manager Tim Guinness, chief investment officer of the Guinness Atkinson Fund, said this week that international oil prices may hit $200 a barrel in the next two years, after which demand will be significantly suppressed. The fund expects the average price of crude oil in New York this year to be 95 to 100 US dollars, previously forecast to be about 85 US dollars.
"I believe more and more, it is necessary to wait until the oil price first rises to 200 US dollars in order to form a sufficient pressure on the demand." Guinness said. He predicted that by 2010 oil prices will soar to 200 US dollars a barrel, the average price of that year is expected to be 160 US dollars. Guinness said that the growth in demand in developing countries far exceeds the decline in demand in developed countries. At the same time, the crude oil supply situation in 2009 and 2010 was grave, mainly due to weak supply growth in non-OPEC oil-producing countries.
200 US dollars Guinness, a well-known energy fund manager, predicts that by 2010 oil prices will soar to 200 US dollars a barrel, the average price of that year is expected to be 160 US dollars.
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