Since July, the domestic coal tar market has ended in a continuous softening for more than three months, ushering in a round of continuous upswings. In September, the domestic mainstream price of high-temperature coal tar reached 2600 to 2700 yuan (ton price, the same below), the high-end price reached 2800 yuan, an increase of 6%; the mainstream price of medium-temperature coal tar was 2400 to 2600 yuan, and the high-end price reached 3,000 yuan. , the chain rose 14%; low-temperature light coal tar mainstream transaction price reached 3600 ~ 3800 yuan, the chain rose more than 15%. The entire series of products has gone out of a unilateral upswing and the volume has been simultaneously magnified.
The reason is that in addition to the peak season of consumption, coking companies continue to reduce production, deep-processing companies increase short-term operating rates, and the crude oil market continues to pick up factors such as the driving force behind this round of upswings.
Coking enterprises continue to reduce production resulting in tighter prices As the coke market continues to slump, coking companies around the country are in a state of loss, its operating rate has continued to decline compared to the previous period, especially in areas such as East China, North China and other early operating rates, the operating rate has generally decreased significantly. According to statistics, the output of coke in July decreased by 2.33 million tons from the previous month, a decrease of 7% from the previous month, and is still a downward trend from August to September. It is understood that the operating rate of coking plants in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui has dropped to 40%; the overall operating rate in Hebei has been less than 50%; the overall operating rate in Shanxi is below 40%; and the operating rates in the southwest and northwest regions are slightly higher, and many are maintained. At 60%, the operating rate in Central and South China is 50%, and the overall operating rate in the Northeast is 50%. The low start-up rate of domestic coking enterprises caused high-temperature coal tar production to further decline. In August, the ring output continued to fall by 5.6%. The lack of supply of goods was one of the main reasons for this round of warming up.
Short-term operating rate of deep-processing enterprises increases purchases. According to statistics, in July, the comprehensive operating rate of 90 domestic deep-processing companies increased by more than 6%, which increased the purchase of coal tar. At the same time, due to the market trough in June, the operating rate of coal tar in coking enterprises has also dropped drastically, and corporate inventories have fallen to low levels. In the context of short-term demand growth in July and low social inventory, the tightening price of goods has become a trend. The embodiment of market rules. In addition, the July-August month was the peak season for coal tar consumption. Some processing companies and traders were more psychologically prepared than before, and most of the inventories of coking companies were transferred to traders or deep-processing companies, which was also the main driving force for the continuous rise of the market.
Crude oil continued to pick up prices of low-temperature coal tar Since July, the international crude oil market has continued to rise. As a result, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been raised, and oil products such as oil, fuel oil, and ship oil have all recovered, pulling up the market for medium-low temperature coal tar. Rise. In addition, affected by the declining demand for steel, the operating rate of the blue-carbon manufacturers continued to decline, coupled with the increase in the project demand for the engineering station's paving season for the adjoining highway mixing plant, which pushed up the price of medium-temperature coal tar. It is understood that the medium-temperature coal tar, which is always lower than the high-temperature coal tar market, has even appeared in this round of reversal. In some domestic regions, the medium-temperature coal tar is higher than the high-temperature coal tar by 200 yuan, which is also the first time this year's reversal market, and it is also correct. High-temperature coal tars form a certain positive support.
However, according to the market's first-line information, the market has obviously been underpowered since the end of September. For example, high, medium, and low-temperature coal tars have dropped slightly in some areas, and the transaction volume has also shrunk. After the National Day holiday, the adjustment pressure in the coal tar market gradually increased. The high, medium and low temperature coal tars in Shaanxi and Shandong all decreased by around RMB 100. Individual companies still lowered their pricing plans again, and the market consolidation has entered a substantive stage. .
As the weather cools, seasonal demand has declined and the staged rebound in the coal tar market may come to an end. Uncertainties on the macroscopic side still exist. If the U.S. coalition countries release crude oil reserves, the possibility of a drop in the price of Brent oil could not be ruled out, which is one of the main reasons why crude oil has hovered at US$90/barrel recently. Coupled with the domestic high-temperature coal tar downstream industrial naphthalene, oyster oil, washing oil, carbon black and other industries still does not really start. In addition, from the perspective of the trend curve, technical adjustment requirements have begun to appear.
From the practical operation of the market, it was shown that the risk accumulation was very obvious due to the rapid increase in the previous period, and signs of weakness appeared in some areas. In particular, the attitude of the traders to wait and see is increasing, inventory emptiness is the mainstream of the recent traders thought, does not rule out the emergence of a price-free phenomenon in a short time. The above conditions have combined to limit the continued bullishness of the market and it is expected that the domestic coal tar market outlook will adjust again.
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