This year, China's machinery and equipment and electronic communications industry have obvious opportunities (1)

Policy Factors Affecting the Industrial Structure The year 2006 is the first year of the 11th Five-Year Plan, and the industrial restructuring will undergo substantial changes. From the macroeconomic point of view, China’s economic growth pattern has always been subject to adjustments. From the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the State will intensify its efforts to change the mode of economic growth, increase investment in technological resources for economic growth, and develop circular economy and environmentally friendly production. Reduce the energy consumption of economic growth and increase the sustainability of economic growth. At the same time, it will also change the mode of economic growth dominated by investment and exports, increase the contribution of consumption in economic growth, increase the driving force of domestic demand for industrial growth, and add a series of industrial policies that have been introduced in 2006 to be fully implemented. All these will have a profound impact on the pattern of industrial growth.

First, industries with excess production capacity will face greater adjustments. Due to the rapid growth of investment in the past few years, a large amount of new production capacity has been formed. In 2005, there was a significant overcapacity, which was concentrated in the steel, ferroalloy, electrolytic aluminum, coke, batteries, automobiles, and cement industries. In these industries, as the production scale has grown too fast, the overall oversupply market pattern has formed, which has led to a continuous decline in product prices, which has affected the growth of economic efficiency in the industry, and the company’s losses have been increasing. For example, the production capacity of steel in the steel industry reached 470 million tons by the end of 2005, and the output was only 340 million tons, and some projects under construction will be put into operation one after another. The electrolytic aluminum industry has already formed a production capacity of 10.3 million tons, of which 260 Tens of thousands of tons are idle, and the expansion of production scale has increased the demand for alumina in the international market and raised the cost of alumina, making more than 65% of the enterprises in China's electrolytic aluminum industry in 2005 at a loss. The ferroalloy industry was formed in 2005. The capacity is 22.13 million tons, of which 60% is in excess; the battery industry's production capacity is 16 million tons, and 50% is idle; in the coke industry, China's current production capacity is 242 million tons, of which 40% belongs to excess production capacity; At the end of 2005, the industry's production capacity reached 8.68 million, and the production capacity under construction was more than 2 million, while the output was only 6.15 million. The excess production capacity that has already been formed, coupled with the continuous production of many projects under construction, will further increase the production capacity of some industries. The problem of overproduction in these industries will become the main contradiction in China's industrial development in 2006.

As the market presents a serious oversupply situation, the growth of these industries in 2006 will continue to face adjustments. The intensification of market competition will cause the prices of products to continue to fall, and the economic benefits of the industry will be difficult to grow. The National Development and Reform Commission has already focused on monitoring the development of these surplus industries. In 2006, it will structurally adjust the excess production capacity and eliminate backward production capacity. Policy measures will have further tightening effects on these surplus industries.

Second, mechanical equipment and electronic communications industries will face good policy opportunities. In the process of accelerating the development of new-type industrialization, China needs to modernize the traditional production methods. The market demand for machinery and equipment is very large, especially for CNC machine tools, high-power power generation equipment, new instrumentation, large-scale complete sets of technical equipment and other products. The market demand is becoming more and more widespread. In the process of promoting structural adjustment and industrial upgrading, the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry needs to be developed in advance to provide equipment support for the upgrading and upgrading of production technology and equipment in various industries. Especially in today’s increasingly fierce international competition, improving production equipment and increasing production efficiency are the key to enhancing product competitiveness. China is a world’s largest producer, but it is not a powerful country. The fundamental reason is that China’s production technology is still heavily dependent on imports, and some The technical equipment for national security is also facing the technological blockade of developed countries. Therefore, the state has already made accelerating the development of equipment manufacturing industry as the focus of the 11th Five-Year Plan. The process of industrialization and urbanization in China has accelerated, providing a huge market demand for equipment manufacturing. The combination of policies and market environment will provide China's equipment manufacturing industry with a good opportunity for development.

In the focus of national industrial restructuring, accelerating the development of high-tech industries and further enhancing the high-tech industry's leading role in economic growth is one of the important contents. In China's current high-tech industry, electronic communications equipment manufacturing industry occupies an absolute dominant position, and other industries such as aerospace, biotechnology, and new energy and new materials also have great potential for development. The important development opportunity facing the electronic communication equipment manufacturing industry in 2006 is the determination of the 3G standard. At the beginning of the year, China has officially promulgated TD-SCDMA as the preferred standard for China's communication industry. The 3G industry based on this may be put into industrial operation in 2006. . This means that the technology of the TD-SCDMA standard has matured, and China's 3G license may also be officially issued in 2006. At present, the construction of a small-scale experimental network is ongoing, and the process of industrialization of domestic standards is increasing. The party has also made the information industry as the key industry in the future in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" proposal. It must speed up the breakthrough in China's key technology fields in the communications industry. TD-SCDMA is China's first domestic standard to become an international standard. Undoubtedly, it will be the top priority in the development of the next five years. Therefore, in 2006, the electronic communications equipment manufacturing industry will win good development opportunities in the construction of 3G networks. This will provide a large number of business opportunities for related industries such as equipment providers, network operators, and electronic component suppliers.

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