According to a report released by Milind Phadke, Kline & Company’s industry manager, “Overview of the Global Lubricants Industry 2009â€, the global lubricant industry in 2009 was revealed. In 2009, the lubricant industry entered a period of large negative growth. Sales growth was slowest in the last quarter of 2008, and worse in 2009. In the first quarter of 2009, sales that depended on the terminal industry, products and regions fell by 20% to 40%. The second quarter was flat. In the third quarter, Asia seems to have begun to recover, especially in China and India, as well as Indonesia and South America. In Europe, Germany and France seem to have passed the recession and are now entering a recovery period. On the other hand, the UK, Ireland and Spain continue to struggle due to their real estate bubble. The United States is on the road to recovery, but high unemployment will be a persistent problem.
In North America and most of Europe, the recovery of consumption needs a long period of time. Although housing prices have fallen, the recovery will be slow. The unemployment rate is high, so the market is experiencing a period of unemployment recovery. Due to the increasing fiscal deficit, taxes are also likely to increase. Consumers will be more economized, more cost conscious and more sensitive to product costs when shopping. On the contrary, China’s continued growth will depend on consumer spending rather than export growth.
Global lubricant industry is on the road to recovery - Kline Company expects that by 2012, global consumption will return to the level of 2007. However, due to the economic recession, consumption patterns are undergoing tremendous changes. The recession has particularly aggravated the shift in the pattern of lubricant consumption in South America, Europe and Asia. The consumption patterns emerging in the global market will bring many challenges to the lubricant industry, lubricant base oil industry and lubricant additives industry.
The North American auto industry was already in a difficult position, and the economic recession made the situation worse. People not only extend the cycle of change, but also pay more attention to the maintenance of the car. Therefore, lubricating oil dealers have proposed a variety of market requirements to arouse people's consumer interest, such as fuel economy, engine protection and prolong life, as well as personalized services for specific consumer groups. The flexible selection of multiple fuels and the use of ethanol and biodiesel provide more opportunities for the positioning of product performance.
On the other hand, the Asian automobile industry has been restored, and sales and product quality have also increased. Car production and sales have grown strongly in the final quarter. A major trend is the launch of small/economical cars represented by TATA NANO in 2009. To a large extent, due to the growth in the sales of economic vehicles, car owners have dramatically increased in high-growth Asian markets and other new markets. Europe also seems to be keen on economy cars, but the North American market has little effect on this. This economic car consumption trend helps consumers to increase their consumption of lubricants. Similar to the increase in the sales of economic vehicles, there has also been a significant increase in the consumption of luxury brand automobiles. Information from Asia shows that due to the increase in the number of car owners, there has been a strong increase in the amount of lubricants consumed, and due to the intensification of the modernization of the car, the demand for lubricant quality has also increased.
In terms of industrial lubricants, the economic recession has aggravated the shift of consumption to Asia. Industrial production has shifted to Asia and Eastern Europe due to cost advantages in Asia and Eastern Europe. In addition, industrial consumption of industrial lubricants has been stimulated in Asia as a result of advocates of infrastructure projects, rural construction and similar economic consumption. This is exactly different from the consumption of the developed economies: more attention is paid to the unemployment benefit and health care expenditure.
Due to the prevailing high prices before the economic downturn, base oil refining and lubricant profits have increased substantially. In Asia, a generally growing trend is for automotive fleets to send used lubricants to refineries for re-refining: adding new additives and reusing them. This recycling of oil products is becoming more and more popular because it allows consumers to avoid the impact of crude oil price fluctuations. In North America and Europe, the supply of base oil regenerative refining also showed an increasing trend. This form may seem economical in the era of high oil prices, but in other periods, it is not worthwhile because of the high energy consumption associated with it.
Due to the economic recession, the lubricant industry has paid more attention to the optimization of the industrial chain. The global lubricant industry experienced a period of reserve reduction in the early recession. However, this is actually a panic reaction to the uncertainty of business recovery and the more ambitious economic blueprint.
Economic confidence has partially recovered, but lubricants companies are focusing on cutting costs. The purchase of base oils and additives has become more sensible; product development projects have focused more on economic status; financial reviews have been more cautious. On the other hand, sales and product promotion costs continue to remain at pre-recession levels. Any activity that is conducive to increasing sales profits must be guaranteed within the current marketing budget. In terms of protecting sales profits, the review of partners takes a more cautious approach to ensure that branded products are not replaced by non-branded oil products or even counterfeit and inferior products. This leads to the need for more extensive marking.
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