5 million new cars to be sold

Near the end of the year, many dealers will sell inventory cars at a low price. Consumers think that they are cheap, but they don't know that there are many hidden risks in the stock car. However, the inventory car is not a used car, and it cannot be bought. The premise is that before the purchase, a “full physical examination” is required. The dealer is also obliged to inform the consumer of the inventory time of the vehicle. Rational consumption, understanding consumption, can avoid buying a "car troubles."

On January 11, 2013, the China Automobile Association released the entire year of production and sales in 2012. According to the data, the production and sales of automobiles last year were 19,271,800 and 19,306,400 respectively, an increase of 4.63% and 4.33% respectively year-on-year. On the surface, this year-end report is still barely visible, but the reporter of Huaxi Dushi Bao learned that in 2012, it is estimated that the annual inventory will reach 5 million, that is, 1/4 of the output will be sold to the car dealers. . Automobile analyst Jia Xinguang predicts that due to the more uncertain factors in the 2013 economic environment, the auto market is good for wishful thinking. In order to win limited market resources, the pressure between the factory and the merchants is still not optimistic.

On the surface, the stock car is produced because of the disconnection between production and sales. Is there a deeper reason? For consumers, can the stock car be purchased and how should it be purchased? With these questions, Huaxi Dushi Bao reporter conducted an on-site investigation interview.

Status: In 2012, Zhang Depeng, president of Sanhe Group, a 5 million-stock vehicle, revealed that, as far as he knows, “as of August last year, there were at least 3 million to 4 million stock cars in the hands of dealers. And the next In the fourth quarter, as many new cars went on the market and there was no significant improvement in the market, the inventory of dealers continued to increase. To be conservative, it was estimated that the annual inventory would be around 5 million, that is, the annual output would be 1/ 4 in the hands of dealers. For dealers, you can use 'three 1/3' to sum up: 1/3 loss, 1/3 profit and 1/3 collapse.”

For example, Xiao Fang (a pseudonym), a marketing staff member of a 4S store in Changan Ford, has the same view: “On the surface, the number of manufacturers’ sales seems to increase, but in fact they are all on the downstream distributors’ heads. If they are examined from the terminal, the market is fundamental. Not micro growth, but pseudo growth."

At the peak of mid-year inventory last year, the results of a sample survey conducted by the China Automobile Dealers Association for more than a thousand 4S stores across the country showed that inventory of car dealers continued to climb in the month, with an overall inventory coefficient of 1.98 and a high inventory (inventory coefficient greater than 2.5). The brand with the highest inventory coefficient reached 6.71.

"The so-called inventory coefficient is the ratio of the current vehicle inventory quantity to the historical average monthly sales volume, and is the most intuitive data for inventory." Zhou Guohong, general manager of Aon Jianghuai, said that according to international practice, the inventory coefficient is between 0.8-1.2. The inventory is in a reasonable range; the inventory coefficient is 1.5, which is the alert level; and the inventory coefficient is greater than 2.5, it reflects the inventory is too high, the dealer operating pressure and risk are very large.

Causes: Overproduction, mix-and-move, and slow-moving production of “stock cars” reflect a subtle game between manufacturers and distributors. Most of the time, the two are coexistence and co-prosperity, but when the market is not good, the strong position of manufacturers. It will be highlighted.” Cheng Ping (a pseudonym), a person in charge of 4S stores in Chengdu, said that the imbalance between supply and demand between manufacturers and distributors is the main reason for inventory vehicles. Manufacturers usually predict sales based on last year and the market for the coming year. Judging the amount of production, but the auto market is ups and downs like the stock market, changing rapidly. In the first two years, the auto market experienced a golden period of rapid development. The manufacturers increased their production capacity significantly. However, under the background of the slowdown in end-consumption consumption this year, they fell into “overproduction” and led to inventory.

Another layer of reason is more sensitive. "When dealers purchase goods from manufacturers, they are not sold exactly in accordance with the market laws, but are required to match the 'sluggish models'." Cheng Ping said that these slow-moving models may be concentrated in some high-profile or popular colors, these models In the purchase volume must reach a fixed proportion, if not reach, the manufacturer may reduce the rebate to the dealer, and more serious will even affect the choice of the dealer agent in the coming year.

However, manufacturers also have their own hardships. A person in charge of a car brand region once told reporters: For manufacturers, these major moves to build factories to expand production are often plans based on market conditions made several years ago. However, whether it is a manufacturer or a distributor, there may be deviations in the market's judgments, and the unpredictability of the market's variables will cause this situation. On the other hand, the completion of many automobile factories is inextricably linked with the local government investment promotion, and manufacturers who obtain preferential policies need to make achievements.

Responsiveness: Manufacturers transform their production capacity according to demand In fact, in the face of high inventory, some manufacturers have begun to actively respond to ensure the sound operation of manufacturers and dealers.

Dongfeng Nissan Vice Minister of Marketing Zhu Xiaozhu introduced the beginning of this year, Dongfeng Nissan will be based on the demand reported by dealers to set production capacity, from the planned economy to a market economy. This transition includes three core elements: First, the assessment will no longer target the manufacturers, but will look at the market share of the distributors. Second, from the top down to the bottom up. Third, simplification of assessment will place greater emphasis on customer satisfaction. "We started to implement it in November last year and it looks good."