In the next 15 to 20 years, the fuel engine will still dominate, but electric vehicles will enter a rapid development stage. As long as the Chinese market has application factors, coupled with the company's adequate production preparations, and strong support of national policies, the future prospects for energy-saving and environmentally friendly vehicles are good.
However, the development of new energy vehicles involves the development direction of many industries and technologies, and the policy support and energy security requirements alone are not enough. How should the hardware environment be improved to fit the scale and trend of new energy vehicle development? How do self-owned core technologies develop and take a place in the global market? These are all problems faced by the development of new energy vehicles.
Energy security needs and policy support greatly accelerate the development of new energy vehicles
As we all know, automobiles are large industrial energy consumers, and two-thirds of China's new oil demand each year is used in the transportation industry, of which automobiles account for more than 30%. Traditional energy vehicles have always been large emitters of carbon. According to relevant studies, the annual emissions of harmful emissions of a car are up to four times its own weight. This phenomenon also reflects the embarrassing situation of China's new energy and energy-saving and environmentally friendly vehicles. For these two considerations, vigorously developing new energy vehicles is the development trend of the automotive industry and the only way for the sustainable development strategy of China's auto industry.
From a policy perspective, China's new energy vehicles are entering a comprehensive policy support phase. China is increasing its support for new energy vehicles and has increased the number of pilot cities for the demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new-energy vehicles in the “Ten Cities†from 20 to 25. It is reported that the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Development Plan (2011-2020)" led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology shows that the central government will invest heavily in the development of core technologies for energy-saving and new energy vehicles over the next 10 years. And promotion, the amount of funds reached 100 billion yuan.
The development of key components has largely influenced the development speed of new energy vehicles.
New energy vehicles have greatly improved the quality requirements of related parts and components industries. If new energy vehicles are popular, it will drive major changes in the parts and components industry, especially the battery industry. This requires that the relevant parts and components companies have strong operating capabilities, leading technologies, a certain scale effect, and the ability to expand production capacity or extend the industrial chain in the future.
China's auto industry is still at the stage of imitating and learning. It does not have the ability to innovate R&D according to market demand. It does not fully grasp core technologies, and key components are weak. Compared with traditional automobiles, new energy vehicles adopt a large number of new technologies and require a huge amount of research and development funds, human and material resources, which will discourage the investment willingness of some small and medium-sized enterprises. However, large funds invested by large-scale enterprises in the initial period are not seen. In the short term, they will be able to get a corresponding return. They can only rely on the new car to succeed in the market before they can start to profit.
In the core technologies and key components of new energy vehicles, the gap between China and Japan is further widening. Toyota Motor Co. has not relaxed its research and development work on new energy vehicles. It has entered the third generation of hybrid technology, and it still stays in the first generation. In terms of power lithium batteries, lithium-ion battery separators, electrolytes, and lithium-ion battery equipment, China has a huge gap with Japan.
The new energy vehicle is an innovation of the whole vehicle. The future dependence of the entire vehicle on components will be greater and greater, especially the electronic control and modular supply of components. In this respect, if the components are not autonomous With innovative capabilities, vehicle innovation will not be possible.
The perfection of supporting facilities is the main constraint to the popularity of electric vehicles in the market
Electric vehicle charging stations need to be continuously improved as the infrastructure of new energy vehicles. The mainstream products of new energy vehicles are based on reserve power as a power source. Only the construction of a convenient charging station and the popularity of charging equipment can provide a good road for electric power-driven new energy vehicles. The development of supporting facilities for new energy vehicles has always been lagging behind. It is difficult to build a large-scale charging station network in the short term, and only a few charging stations can be seen in some areas where electric vehicles are commissioned or installed. The parking space of the charging device also greatly hinders the popularization and use of electric vehicles. Concerns about halfway power cuts and the failure to find a charging station are common problems for many potential users of electric vehicles.
In order to solve the supporting issues such as charging for new energy vehicles, by the end of this year, the State Grid will build 75 charging stations and 6,209 charging piles in 27 provinces and cities; the scale of electric vehicle charging stations will reach 4,000 in 2011-2016, which will initially form. Electric vehicle charging network; 2016-2020, the scale of electric vehicle charging stations will reach 10,000, and the construction of charging piles will be carried out in an all-round way. A complete electric vehicle charging network will be built.
In the future, with the increase in the number of electric vehicles, it will inevitably affect the power grid in many ways. Whether or not the charging station can be effectively constructed and diverted effectively will pave the way for electric vehicles to go to the market and become another major constraint factor for the development of new energy vehicles.
New energy vehicles will eventually undergo market inspection
New energy vehicles, especially electric vehicles, are classified as consumer goods if they are estimated by future abatement costs, and they are mainly paid by the public. Therefore, problems in product development, marketing, channel use, maintenance and other aspects may affect the final purchase behavior.
Since the purchase and use costs of new energy vehicles are significantly higher than those of ordinary cars fueled by gasoline or diesel, their continuous driving mileage is limited and the speed is low. Even if consumers’ environmental protection awareness is high, they will not necessarily buy it. A car that is both expensive and has a lot of restrictions.
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