Survey: Export of vehicles from joint ventures is difficult to become mainstream

The discussion on the export of joint-venture car companies has a long history, but there is no conclusion. At present, the industry's views on this have not yet reached a complete consensus, mixed.

Recently, news of BMW Brilliance’s first BMW 5 series long-wheelbase sedan and Beijing's Mercedes-Benz’s first batch of 35 Mercedes-Benz E-class long-wheelbase sedan exports overseas have once again caused the industry’s concern about the export of joint venture automakers. The export of domestic luxury cars seems to indicate that the overseas export model of domestic joint ventures has risen to a new level. In order to further fully understand the industry's overall evaluation of this export model, Gasgoo.com launched a one-week online industry survey on this topic (the investigation was conducted from December 26 to 31, 2011), with a total of 1,765 people in the industry. Participated in this survey.

Survey: Export of vehicles from joint ventures is difficult to become mainstream


The poll results of Survey 1 show that the mainstream view of the industry is not entirely optimistic about the export prospects of joint-venture car companies. 62% of people believe that the export of joint-venture car companies is difficult to become the mainstream; however, there are still 31% of optimists agree that the export of joint-venture car companies will become the mainstream trend; in addition, 7% of people did not make a clear judgment and chose “ Hard to say".

According to historical records, in the 1980s, the original intention of China to negotiate the establishment of a joint venture vehicle enterprise was to earn foreign exchange through exports. Later, with the gradual opening of the Chinese market and the continued expansion of market prospects, the main energy of the joint-venture car companies has basically been put back into deepening the Chinese market. According to our offline investigation of the insiders of some joint-venture car companies, it has been learned that Chinese management of some joint-venture car companies has had efforts to promote exports to overseas markets. However, due to various considerations, Did not promote the formation of overseas export business.

In the history of the joint venture of the Chinese automobile industry for nearly three decades, although joint ventures have already achieved small-batch export business to overseas markets, they have not yet formed a climate. For example, since the beginning of this century, there have been too many cases of joint ventures overseas. In 2002, Shanghai GM exported GL commercial vehicles to small quantities in the Philippines; in 2003, Shanghai Volkswagen exported 600 POLO sedan to Australia; In 2005, SAIC-GM-Wuling exported 12 Wuling micro-vehicles to Afghanistan; in 2006, Shanghai GM exported 1400 Saiou to Chile and so on. However, in general, the scale of joint-venture automakers' exports over the years is very small. The domestic auto export volume is basically dominated by local independent brands such as Chery and Great Wall, and many of the export businesses of joint ventures are not sustainable. Only once, try nothing. Therefore, such small-scale exports did not bring about changes in business value and market trends. Symbolic significance is far greater than practical significance.

From the survey, we can see that this is mainly constrained and influenced by many factors.

Survey: Export of vehicles from joint ventures is difficult to become mainstream


The poll results of Survey 2 show that the option of “a question of whether or not the distribution of interests between China and foreign countries can be reasonably resolved” has achieved a 27% maximum voter turnout. It can be seen that the key to the delay in the export of joint ventures is that the interests of the Chinese and foreign parties in the joint venture have not been well balanced.

On the one hand, the benefits derived from the export of joint ventures account for half of the share ratio, especially if the overseas markets for exports are foreign target markets. If the products are not complementary, internal trusses are most likely to occur. This is foreign. The taboo. In this regard, 17% of respondents in Survey 2 believe that the impact of joint-venture vehicle exports on foreign production bases may not be ignored. On the other hand, the Chinese market has shown strong growth momentum in recent years. As well as the still very promising market prospects in the future, the tight production capacity will also cause the joint-venture vehicle enterprises to be distracted by the export business. If this type of joint venture vehicle enterprises also choose to export large-scale exports, this will inevitably affect the foreign Direct benefits. Also, as far as we know, for the vast majority of foreign investment, the strategic choice for setting up a joint-venture vehicle company initially tends to seize the commanding heights of the Chinese market, so that whether or not overseas exports have been promoted to strategic level .

“The obvious advantage of China’s scale as a production base” is seen by 24% of the people as a major factor that affects the export of joint-venture automakers. This may be particularly important for some car companies that plan to transfer their production capacity overseas. For example, Japanese automakers affected by the Japan earthquake and floods in Thailand this year will consider whether the natural environment, production costs, logistics facilities, and the scale of the production base of the production site are significant in the process of transferring production capacity overseas. With scale advantages, it can effectively control and reduce production costs. Under the overall balance of corporate interests, it does not rule out the possibility that some Japanese automakers will increase the capacity expansion of China’s joint-venture vehicle makers for export.

The fluctuation of the exchange rate is crucial for export-oriented companies. Therefore, 11% of people believe that the impact of exchange rate changes on corporate profits is also a key factor in determining whether joint venture carmakers will consider exporting. Let's analyze the Japanese car companies. The revenue of several major Japanese car companies including Toyota this year has significantly shrunk and caused huge losses. In addition to the shutdown of factories caused by natural disasters, it is even more important that the profits of the yen continue to rise. Slightly narrowed. Whether it is necessary to consider using the capacity of the joint-venture car company to achieve export compensation, the RMB exchange rate issue is particularly important for the judgment of the appreciation of space in the next few years is an important reference.

In contrast, the two factors of "Made in China"'s international influence and word of mouth and the support of the Chinese government only obtained low voting rates of 12% and 6%, respectively. This is mainly because the production process of joint-venture car companies is constantly improving as consumers' understanding and requirements of products tend to be mature and rational. After fully absorbing the technology and management concepts of foreign parties, the joint-venture car companies will manufacture their products. The level has been significantly improved, and some of them have even competed with foreign standards. Under such standards and regulations, "Made in China" will not become a stumbling block for the export of joint venture vehicles.

The government's support is mainly reflected in the export tax rebates and foreign investment in the country to give some reasonable support. However, before the joint-venture car companies could not form a scale, the good from the government is not enough to be the driving force.

However, we also learned from offline survey interviews that, apart from the above factors, the current reason why joint-venture car companies only export small-batch products to markets such as the Middle East, South America, and Africa, but not to European and American mature markets, is because they are controlled by Europe and the United States. The country’s policies and regulations on product quality, safety factor, and emission standards are significantly higher than domestic ones. To realize the export to these markets, it is necessary to re-adjust the production equipment and process manufacturing standards. The cost is huge. Of course, foreign capital itself has basically completed its production capacity in these markets, and it does not need to rely on the capacity of Chinese joint ventures to meet local market demand, at least at this stage.

Although the move by BMW Brilliance and Beijing Benz has attracted widespread attention, it seems that the luxury car industry will not become the major export category of joint ventures.

Survey: Export of vehicles from joint ventures is difficult to become mainstream


Survey 3 poll results show that 50% of the people think that joint ventures are more willing to export middle and low-end cars. As a result of the export of SAIC-GM-Wuling to the Indian market, GM can use the low-cost advantage of SAIC-GM-Wuling products to seize the market share occupied by Suzuki, and it will not compete with GM-delivered models in India. This is in line with both Chinese and foreign shareholders. Benefits: The export of such joint-venture car companies is sustainable under the unanimous support of Chinese and foreign shareholders, and the prospects are expected. In contrast, 16% and 21% of luxury cars and mid-to-high-end cars appear to be products that joint ventures are more willing to export, which mainly depends on whether the foreign party has a production base in the target market and uses China. Whether the export capacity of the joint-venture vehicle enterprise meets the fundamental interests of the enterprise, but through our interviews with insiders of the joint-venture car company, the willingness to export this type of vehicle is generally not strong. On the one hand, it is due to the joint venture car's luxury car and mid- to high-level car. The immature aspect of overseas market development, on the other hand, is that it does not currently meet the interests of foreign countries.

Overall, the scale of China's auto exports is increasing year by year. However, according to the online and offline survey results, it is difficult for joint venture automakers to become the mainstream of exports for the foreseeable future 5 to 10 years. The Chinese market is still far from being saturated. It is still a crucial period for joint-venture vehicle companies to seize market share in China in the next 10 years. Therefore, overseas exports can only be occasionally based on corporate public relations and other needs.

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