Rigid demand to drive next year's auto production or sales or break through 20 million

In 2010, driven by endogenous demand and policy incentives, sales and profitability of the domestic automotive industry have been increasing. The annual sales volume has ranked first in the world. For next year, analysts pointed out that the retreat of encouragement policies and upward pressure on inflation will hamper the growth rate of the auto industry. However, after entering the “automobile society”, residents’ rigid demands for cars and policies for energy-saving cars will obviously pull, and will still make China’s autos The industry maintains a growth rate of more than double digits, and sales in the whole year of 2011 are likely to exceed the 20 million mark.

Growth is still the main tone of the year in line with the rapid growth of the contrarian last year, this year, China's auto sales climbed all the way, out of the off-season is not light, hot season selling. According to the statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China's auto production and sales in the first 10 months of this year completed 14.6238 million vehicles and 147.770 million vehicles, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 34.49% and 34.76%, respectively, and sales have exceeded the full-year level. November and December are the traditional peak sales season. The last-minute policy to catch up to the policy, and the wealth effect that will lead to high-end car production and other factors will keep sales in the two months after the end of this year to a high level. China Merchants Securities expects that the macroeconomic fundamentals will be good and that the continued use of vehicles will lead to rapid growth in China's auto sales. In 2010, the sales growth of automobiles will be 32%, and the sales volume will reach 18 million.

The increase in scale and product structure optimization will boost the automotive industry's performance. According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, the total output value of enterprises in the automotive industry in China in the first 9 months has completed 3.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.87%. While maintaining the growth of the entire vehicle industry, auto parts and accessories in the upstream industry of the automobile have basically kept pace with the growth of the industry. Yang Huachao, an analyst at GF Securities Automotive, expects to realize an annual income of 1.5 trillion yuan this year. Among them, the tire manufacturing industry achieved an increase of about 30% in revenue, but due to the rise in rubber costs, the profit growth was weak. It is expected that the fourth quarter will be the toughest time for the tire industry.

Encouraging policies will be "moderately tight"

It is worth noting that the policy of encouraging automobile consumption since last year will expire at the end of this year. Among them, the purchase tax is reduced by 7.5% of the preferential policy, the Development and Reform Commission has indicated that it will not be continued next year. The policy of car-to-the-township and the subsidy policy of 3,000 yuan for energy-saving cars are still not conclusive. However, the policy of car-to-country policies has limited effects. Therefore, the key point of the policy is the subsidy policy for energy-saving cars.

Analysts pointed out that although the government still hopes to stimulate economic growth with auto consumption, due to the increasing traffic pressure and environmental pressure in major cities, the impact of the traditional auto consumption policy will be neutral next year. The policy for renewing energy-saving vehicles starting from this year will continue. This policy is conducive to promoting energy-saving and emission-reduction work, which will help offset the weakening of purchase tax preferential policies or cancel the negative impact on the 1.6-liter or lower passenger vehicle market. Land is conducive to the development of passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less.

On the whole, due to the high base in the first quarter of 2010 and policy disturbances leading to some advance consumption in the fourth quarter, experts expect that the growth rate of automobile sales in the first quarter of 2011 will bottom out. However, under the background of steady growth of automobile sales in the coastal areas and the influx of automobiles in the central and western provinces, China’s auto market will continue to maintain double-digit growth next year.

The Guotai Junan report pointed out that next year's purchase tax concessions and other policies are no longer expected to continue. The “12th Five-Year Plan” is expected to focus on coordinated development, and this year’s high base figure is expected to increase vehicle sales by 10%-15% next year and continue to Steady growth transition. CICC also believes that in 2011 China's auto sales growth is expected to reach 15%.

In addition to policy factors, there are also inflation factors for the sales impact variables for the next year. China Merchants Securities pointed out that according to the development stage of the domestic auto industry, it is expected that auto sales will still maintain a 15% growth in 2011, with sales exceeding 20 million vehicles.

But the biggest uncertainty is whether inflation can be effectively controlled. From the empirical data, if the CPI continues to rise, the growth rate of car sales will continue to decline. The monthly increase of CPI is above 3%. However, there has been almost no case where the growth rate of car sales exceeds 20%.

For the 2010 growth rate, Guotai Junan believes that the industry sales volume is expected to maintain a growth of 10-15% next year, and the capacity utilization rate will maintain a high level. Although there is a risk of rising raw materials, it is expected that the increase will not be too large. It is expected that the industry's profits will increase by about 20% next year.