At present, some coal chemical companies are optimistic about coal paraffin or being launched. However, the reporter learned that because of paraffin wax excess capacity, export shrinkage, low-end product impact and other factors, the current paraffin wax market may be shifted from the seller's market to the buyer's market. The market competitiveness of coal paraffin supplemented with petroleum wax is facing severe challenges.
Paraffin is known as a "platinum product" in petroleum products because of its higher profits. One of the indirect coal liquefaction technologies for Fischer-Tropsch synthesis is 50% of paraffin wax production. After the price of paraffin wax climbed to around 10,000 yuan in 2009, it has been consolidating at this high level. The reason why such a high price can be maintained is that on the one hand, the product is small and easy to operate, and it has been sought after by some traders. Another major reason is that this product is highly concentrated in the hands of PetroChina and Sinopec, and has been formed for several years. A relatively stable price.
The performance of the paraffin market in 2011 can be described as a "strange" word. According to Li Gang, chief of the business department of Maoming Petrochemical Sales Center, paraffin wax prices have continued to decline for seven consecutive months from April to October, from the highest price of 11,400 yuan (t price, the same below), all the way down to 8,900 yuan, the market 58 # of the mainstream model fell below 9,000 yuan, and the long-term decline in prices for half a year has never occurred in history. The sluggish paraffin market has caused some dealers to retreat.
Zhuo Chuang analyst Li Fang introduced that now the price of paraffin wax is between RMB 9600 and RMB 10,150, which is a rise of RMB 300 to RMB 400 before the Spring Festival. From the perspective of future trends, international crude oil is at a high level and the price of refined oil is high, while the cost of paraffin itself is higher than that of finished products. Oil, the two major groups still have a tendency to pull up, paraffin wax prices will still fluctuated at a high of 8500 to 11,000 yuan, but the paraffin market is not booming.
At present, the total annual production capacity of paraffin in China is 1.6 million tons. In 2011, the production of paraffin wax was about 1.232 million tons. With the gradual restoration of production of Fushun Petrochemical Plant this year, the refinery capacity of Jinan will increase. It is expected that the total production will increase to approximately 1.35 million tons in 2012. In recent years, paraffin consumption has decreased. The domestic apparent consumption increased from 790,000 tons in 2004 to 900,000 tons in 2007, with an average annual growth rate of 5%. From 2008 to 2011, the demand for paraffin in China began to decline again. In 2011, it fell to its lowest level in seven years, with an apparent consumption of 781,000 tons. The domestic production capacity has apparently been surplus.
China’s paraffin has been export-oriented. Since 2007, paraffin wax exports have continued to decline. In 2010, paraffin wax exports amounted to 519,000 tons, accounting for 40.25% of the total output. In 2011, the total amount of paraffin exports was 451,106 tons, accounting for only It is 36.59% of the total output. The European economy is not optimistic about laying a shadow on this year's paraffin export. In China, the SMEs are the mainstay in the downstream, and this year will further face increased production and operating costs such as labor wages, raw material prices, loan interest, and plant rents, which will lead to a decline in profits and difficulty in receiving orders.
Coal-made paraffins also have no cost advantage over imported crude paraffin raw materials. In recent years, there have been more cheap crude paraffin raw materials in the Middle East and other regions entering the Chinese market. After simple processing, paraffin wax products with poor quality have been produced. These products began to be recognized and gradually accepted by the Chinese market, and were widely used in the downstream civil candles and plastics industries. In 2010 and 2011, the import volume of crude paraffin wax raw materials increased at a rate of about 30%, and the spread between domestic and processed products reached more than 1,000 yuan. At the same time, fluctuations in the exchange rate of the renminbi have created obstacles for domestic paraffin exports, but they have further provided price advantages for imported paraffins.
It is reported that coal-based synthetic waxes are cheaper than petroleum-based waxes, but their market applications are limited. Paraffin wax consumption in China is mainly used in the candle industry, accounting for 48.5% of the total consumption; followed by emulsified wax, which accounts for 19% of total demand; again, packaging wax, which accounts for 10% of total demand. Coal-based paraffin wax has high hardness and low oil content. Compared with the quality of petroleum waxes, there are gaps. The color of products is not as good as petroleum waxes. The coal-based paraffin wax has a melting point of more than 90°C and will be fire-retardant when it is produced, so it cannot be used to produce candles. Coal-based paraffin wax also does not have the normal alkane content required for detergent ingredients.
In the international market, waxes extracted from soy, palm and animal fats are more popular. Soy waxes are favored in the United States, while palm waxes are used more extensively in Asia and Europe. Currently, 30% to 35% of the wax used for candle production comes from these lower-priced paraffin substitutes. Compared with them, coal-made paraffin wax has no advantage in terms of product performance or price.
To this end, some coal chemical experts have suggested that in the current market conditions, paraffin wax in Fischer-Tropsch synthesis should not be produced as a product, but should be further processed into naphtha, liquefied gas, crude oil and other products.
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