Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell 4.5 percentage points. The auto vehicle fell 1.06%, outperforming the market by 3.47 percentage points. The passenger car segment fell 0.91%, outperforming the market by 3.62 percentage points; commercial trucks fell 1.71%, outperforming the market by 2.81 percentage points; passenger car segment The performance was relatively good, falling 0.46% and outperforming the market by 4.07 percentage points. The long-lost auto sector has been shown to have better anti-fall properties last week due to the support of many policy areas.
Total sales are still falling, passenger cars are firmer
On December 16, the National Development and Reform Commission price monitoring showed that domestic car prices in November 2011 decreased by 0.16%, down 1.19% year-on-year; passenger cars decreased by 0.1% quarter-on-quarter and 1.89% year-on-year, of which cars rose by 0.16% quarter-on-quarter and decreased by 3.08 year-on-year. %, micro-customer ratio was flat, 0.49% year-on-year; commercial trucks fell 0.6% month-on-month, down 0.54% year-on-year; commercial buses rose 0.09% month-on-month, up 0.04% year-on-year; imported cars fell slightly, down 0.05% from the previous month and down 1.29% year-on-year.
In terms of passenger cars, the total volume is still growing; in November, the total sales volume of cars was 930,000, down 0.7% year-on-year. The total sales volume of MPV is 47,000 units, an increase of 11% year-on-year. The total sales of SUVs was 160,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20%. Among them, the mid-to-high-end cars grew relatively fast, while the sales of the low-end and mid-end brands grew slowly.
In terms of commercial vehicles, heavy truck sales in November were still low due to the decline in macroeconomic growth, the decline in real estate investment and the stricter overload management. The total sales volume of heavy trucks in November was 56,000 units, down 30% year-on-year, and the decline was showing signs of expansion. Some agencies believe that there will still be room for decline in the future sales of industrial vehicles.
Throughout the industry, sales of passenger cars are still strong, and they are unique in the industry where sales are shrinking.
As the market expects the automotive industry to slow down in the future, and this year's market conditions are also very weak, the index is hitting new lows. The auto sector has been falling this year, so the overall valuation of the sector is still at the bottom. According to statistics last week, the price-earnings ratio of auto vehicles is about 11 times, and the price-to-book ratio is about 2 times; they are all at historically low levels, even lower than in 2005 and 2008.
It is worth noting that last week, several industry policies spurred the entire auto sector, which has given it a weak share price.
Policy introduced school bus concept is sought after
Due to the frequent occurrence of school bus accidents in recent times, it has attracted the attention of relevant departments. Therefore, on December 11, the Legislative Affairs Office of the State Council announced the "School Bus Safety Regulations (Draft for Comment Draft)", reflecting the government's high regard for the incident. As a national standard, the "Regulations" will significantly improve the standardization and efficiency of China's school bus operations and accelerate the promotion of professional school buses in the future.
The draft of the opinion clarifies the regulations on the quality of the school bus; in the future, it plans to use the financial support, tax incentives, and encourage social donations to support the quality of the school bus service; use the guarantee of the source of funds to enhance the procurement of the school bus to the special school bus and improve the quality of the school bus. To reduce school bus accidents. Therefore, some institutions believe that there is a huge gap in the number and demand of special school buses in China. In the next three years, the number of school buses in China will gradually increase, and the future school bus segment will maintain long-term high-speed growth. It is worth noting that Yutong Bus (600066) has been involved in the formulation of school bus safety standards in China. Its school bus product line is rich. Currently, there are 9 special school buses in sale, accounting for more than 20% of the special school bus market in China. This year, Yutong’s school bus sales were about 2,000 units, compared with 600 units in the same period last year. With the development of the school bus system, Yutong’s school bus purchase orders will increase significantly.
Due to the frequent occurrence of the “school bus†incident and the introduction of relevant policies, Yutong Bus, which is expected to benefit, has performed very strongly in the past month, up 9.7% from November, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.91%. Last week, due to favorable policies, the stock price rose by 5.85%.
Electric vehicles re-enter the market
In addition to the "school bus" theme, the concept of "electric car" that has been forgotten by the market has re-entered the public's attention.
Last week, some media reported that the National Development and Reform Commission recently approved a number of national and local engineering research centers related to the automotive industry. Among them are the National and Local Joint Engineering Research Center for Motor Vehicle Emissions and Post-Processing Technology, the National and Local Joint Engineering Laboratory for Heavy-Duty Vehicle Transmission, the National and Local Joint Engineering Research Center for Automotive Technology and Equipment, the New Energy Vehicle Drive System, and the Engine Component Component Laboratory. Laboratory. As the above approval is aimed at the lack of independent technical links in our country, the market is expected to have a good car industry with independent technology or efforts to enter the field. In particular, the new energy sector will be supported by the 12th Five-Year Plan period.
Thanks to the above positives, BYD (002594) rose 4.38% in the past week, and also rose 6.57% on December 19.
Anti-dumping policy introduced to accelerate the process of localization
In addition, the Ministry of Commerce recently announced that it has decided to impose anti-dumping and countervailing duties on some imported cars and off-road vehicles with a displacement of more than 2.5 liters originating in the United States. The implementation period is 2 years, from December 15, 2011 to December 14, 2013. The announcement shows that the anti-dumping tax rate imposed on each company is 8.9% for General Motors Co., Ltd.; 8.8% for Chrysler Group Co., Ltd.; 2.7% for Mercedes-Benz American International; 2.0% for BMW Spartanburg, USA; Honda, USA Manufacturing Co., Ltd. and Honda Co., Ltd., USA 4.1%; other US companies 21.5%.
Some institutions believe that the import of cars from the United States in the first three quarters of this year accounted for nearly 24% of the total, accounting for a high proportion; but because the enterprises are still dominated by domestic joint ventures, the positive efforts may not be great, but there are Help accelerate the localization of imported cars.
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