Ma Kai: The influence of the world economy on China’s economy is getting bigger Zhou Xiaochuan: With globalization deepening, we need to pay close attention. At the press conference held on the 6th at the Great Hall of the People, Ma Kai, Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance When Minister Xie Xuren and Governor of the People's Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan answered questions from reporters, they all spoke about the impact of the global economy on the Chinese economy.
Regarding the trend of economic globalization, Ma Kai, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said: "With the deepening of economic globalization and the transfer or adjustment of international industries, any economy will not be an isolated island of the economy and will be more closely connected with the outside world. In particular, the economic relations between our country and the rest of the world are getting closer and closer. The world economy has also had a greater impact on the Chinese economy."
The trade surplus is also an unavoidable topic of China's economy. "At present, in the process of globalization, a country's surplus is another country's deficit, and it may be a global and long-term problem."
A reporter asked about the impact of US interest rate cuts on China. In response, Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People's Bank of China, replied: “As for the space for China’s interest rate increase, I personally believe that the room for interest rate increases must exist, but interest rates are the economic lever. To use it to consider its advantages and disadvantages, it is also very artistic what time and what scale to adjust.†He also admitted, “Of course, the downward adjustment of US interest rates has an impact on China’s interest rate policy, but this effect is only part of it. There are some domestic considerations."
For the US subprime mortgage crisis that began last summer, he believes that there has been no real bottom so far and cannot be overlooked. The impact on China can now be seen first and foremost on the direct impact of financial institutions. Chinese financial institutions also have some investments in sub-prime debt. These investments will also have losses, but in general, the number and ratio are not large. In other words, the proportion of sub-debt investment in Chinese financial institutions is relatively small and can be digested. There is also the fact that the size of Chinese financial institutions is relatively large, and their operating conditions are relatively good. They can also afford a small amount of losses.
The second is the indirect impact: What changes the US economy will bring about in the global economy, including changes in international trade, will have a further impact on the Chinese economy. How much of this impact remains to be seen. In addition, this impact may be one round. The US economy may affect other countries in the first round. For example, Europe and other countries, and Europe indirectly has an impact on China’s economy. This must be fully estimated.
Moreover, at the policy level, the United States responds to a possible economic downturn by lowering interest rates. After the United States lowers interest rates, it will have an impact on China’s interest rate or China’s monetary policy. "We need to see that today's global economy has more interaction than before. In the past, under certain preconditions, interest rate policies were relatively independent. You have your interest rate policy. I have my interest rate policy, but now The interdependence of interest rates in various countries is greater than before. It is also a challenge for us to observe."
Finally, there are other policies adopted by the United States to prevent economic recession. These policies will not make the global excess liquidity problem more prominent at present or in the future. “It is also possible. For example, it relaxes its monetary policy and takes Some financial subsidies or relief measures."
In his view, China's excess liquidity has always been linked to excess liquidity in the world. If the problem of excess liquidity in the world may further deepen, then it will have a further impact on China's monetary policy.
Zhou Xiaochuan stated that under the deepening of globalization, there are many influences that are beyond our past experience and past analysis routines, so we need to pay close attention.
Regarding the trend of economic globalization, Ma Kai, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said: "With the deepening of economic globalization and the transfer or adjustment of international industries, any economy will not be an isolated island of the economy and will be more closely connected with the outside world. In particular, the economic relations between our country and the rest of the world are getting closer and closer. The world economy has also had a greater impact on the Chinese economy."
The trade surplus is also an unavoidable topic of China's economy. "At present, in the process of globalization, a country's surplus is another country's deficit, and it may be a global and long-term problem."
A reporter asked about the impact of US interest rate cuts on China. In response, Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People's Bank of China, replied: “As for the space for China’s interest rate increase, I personally believe that the room for interest rate increases must exist, but interest rates are the economic lever. To use it to consider its advantages and disadvantages, it is also very artistic what time and what scale to adjust.†He also admitted, “Of course, the downward adjustment of US interest rates has an impact on China’s interest rate policy, but this effect is only part of it. There are some domestic considerations."
For the US subprime mortgage crisis that began last summer, he believes that there has been no real bottom so far and cannot be overlooked. The impact on China can now be seen first and foremost on the direct impact of financial institutions. Chinese financial institutions also have some investments in sub-prime debt. These investments will also have losses, but in general, the number and ratio are not large. In other words, the proportion of sub-debt investment in Chinese financial institutions is relatively small and can be digested. There is also the fact that the size of Chinese financial institutions is relatively large, and their operating conditions are relatively good. They can also afford a small amount of losses.
The second is the indirect impact: What changes the US economy will bring about in the global economy, including changes in international trade, will have a further impact on the Chinese economy. How much of this impact remains to be seen. In addition, this impact may be one round. The US economy may affect other countries in the first round. For example, Europe and other countries, and Europe indirectly has an impact on China’s economy. This must be fully estimated.
Moreover, at the policy level, the United States responds to a possible economic downturn by lowering interest rates. After the United States lowers interest rates, it will have an impact on China’s interest rate or China’s monetary policy. "We need to see that today's global economy has more interaction than before. In the past, under certain preconditions, interest rate policies were relatively independent. You have your interest rate policy. I have my interest rate policy, but now The interdependence of interest rates in various countries is greater than before. It is also a challenge for us to observe."
Finally, there are other policies adopted by the United States to prevent economic recession. These policies will not make the global excess liquidity problem more prominent at present or in the future. “It is also possible. For example, it relaxes its monetary policy and takes Some financial subsidies or relief measures."
In his view, China's excess liquidity has always been linked to excess liquidity in the world. If the problem of excess liquidity in the world may further deepen, then it will have a further impact on China's monetary policy.
Zhou Xiaochuan stated that under the deepening of globalization, there are many influences that are beyond our past experience and past analysis routines, so we need to pay close attention.
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