Insiders have generally outlined the "push map" of policy effects in the steel market: the most immediate is the improvement of market expectations, which in turn will boost the demand for construction steel, which will indirectly affect the demand for industrial steel. However, some people have also reminded that the fundamental problem of the Chinese steel industry is the industrial structure. It is the key to taking advantage of the policy opportunity to complete industrial strategic transformation.
Wu Wen, head of Shanghai Steel House’s information organization, said that the central government’s 4 trillion yuan expansion of domestic demand measures is a “good news†for the steel industry and steel market. The most immediate results will be boosted market confidence and improved market expectations.
When reporters visited some steel markets in Shanghai, they discovered that the mentality of some traders has changed slightly. According to Bao Siwen, a person in the Shanghai Xiangshan Steel Market Information Department, the steel price plummeted in the previous period and the market demand shrank dramatically. Sometimes the steel price fell or fell three times a day, and the market mentality became cooler. After the introduction of measures to expand domestic demand, some of the more pessimistic traders in the early period began to “see hopeâ€.
According to relevant statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, the loss of domestic steel companies in September this year has reached more than 30%. The industry's estimated loss in October will further expand, and may be as high as 50%. After the introduction of measures to expand domestic demand, the mentality of domestic steel mills will also be very beneficial.
According to the preliminary estimation of some domestic relevant information agencies, the increase in investment in fixed assets during the expansion of domestic demand measures is most directly driven by the steel industry. This means that the benefit of building materials will accelerate.
A series of projects to expand domestic demand, such as the construction of transportation infrastructure, construction of affordable housing, and post-earthquake reconstruction in the earthquake-stricken areas, will also have a positive impact on boosting the growth of steel consumer demand. According to the correlation between investment and steel consumption, it is initially estimated that this direct increase in steel consumption will be at least 80 million tons to more than 100 million tons.
“My steel†information agency researcher Yu Liangui said that compared with construction steel, the driving effect of industrial timber is difficult to show at once. From the contents of the ten measures, we can see that the full implementation of the value-added tax transition reform and increased financial support for economic growth will have a positive impact on the growth of the downstream industries such as automobiles, home appliances, and machinery, but this requires the time.
The expansion of domestic demand to stimulate steel consumption only injects positive factors into the industry and the market. The key to the iron and steel industry's fundamental way out lies in structural transformation. Yu Liangui said that tactics should serve strategy and strategies should not be "overwhelmed" in tactics.
Many researchers told reporters that what they are most worried about is that the steel industry will always be a "simple reincarnation" in a cycle of operations. On the strategic issue of industrial structure, when the market is good, it is either unthinkable or unwilling to do it; when the market is bad, everyone is afraid to do it.
The relevant person in charge of the China Iron and Steel Association has clearly indicated that under the current situation, it is necessary to actively promote the merger and reorganization of the entire industry, eliminate backward production capacity, accelerate scientific and technological progress, adjust and optimize the structure, and completely change the development mode from a positive perspective.
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