Starting in March of this year, a new round of “blowout†growth has engulfed the heavy truck industry, and the heavy truck market has sold more than 50,000 units in a single month for three consecutive months. In April, the heavy truck sales reached the highest single month in history. Vehicle. After the second half of the year, the heavy-duty truck market experienced a more obvious decline. In July and August, sales fell below 40,000.
According to the latest statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, heavy truck production and sales in September were 37,266 and 40,342, respectively, an increase of 32.24% and 52.23% respectively year-on-year. Compared with August, the output was basically flat while the sales volume increased by 11.24%.
In terms of cumulative sales, from January to September this year, the heavy truck market produced a total of 378,647 trucks and sold 374,895 vehicles, which represented an increase of 71.41% and 68.27% respectively from the same period of last year, and continued to maintain a very high growth rate year-on-year.
China National Heavy Duty Truck Deputy General Manager Wang Wenyu believes that due to the apparent decline in sales in the heavy-duty truck market in August, it is a normal phenomenon to see a slight rebound in September; however, from the perspective of the year-round trend, the sales volume of the heavy-duty truck market before the end of the year will ring. There was a continuous decline, but overall sales remained at a high level.
It is difficult to rebound at the end of the year. Wang Wenyu pointed out that according to the law of the market in previous years, the market demand in July and August will have a trough, and it will rebound in September and October. From the current market situation, the previous peak of demand in September and October was not obvious this year.
Wang Wenyu believes that there are two main factors driving the heavy-duty card market in the first half of the year: First, the country's macroeconomic development is rapid, and second, many areas begin to implement weight-based charges. From the perspective of the development situation in the third quarter, although the macroeconomic development of the country still maintained a relatively high growth rate in the second half of the year, the growth rate slowed down from the first half of the year. In addition, as more than 20 provinces and cities have begun to implement weight-based charging, the impact of vehicle renewal on the heavy-duty truck market has weakened.
The industry analysts also pointed out that in the second half of the year, macroeconomic controls such as monetary policy will continue to be tightened, and at the same time some important projects in the west and across the country are basically in place, which will significantly reduce the demand for heavy trucks. In addition, for unqualified coal mines, the forced rectification of high-energy-consuming and high-pollution projects will also shut down the demand for corresponding logistics transportation, dump trucks and special vehicles to a certain extent.
Wang Wenyu analyzed that the hot market in the first half of the year is more unexpected than before, and it contains factors that lead to consumer spending. Although the national economy’s gross production value maintained rapid growth, the growth rate remained in a normal state, and at the same time there was a certain contraction in infrastructure investment in the second half of the year. These two points determined that the total demand for heavy trucks this year will not change much, and therefore the hot market in the first half of the year is inevitable. Will affect the total demand in the second half of the year. He also judged that the market will continue to show a downward trend in the fourth quarter. He also added that sales at the end of the year can hardly rebound, because with the improvement of production and sales models, the "tail-kicking" phenomenon of the heavy-duty truck market at the end of the last few years Already disappeared.
Business has prepared
Due to the generally good sales situation in the first half of the year, the domestic mainstream heavy truck companies have adjusted the annual sales targets set at the beginning of the year to different degrees, so whether the target completion progress of these enterprises will be met under the current market situation with a declining trend. affected? How do they react to the current market situation?
According to the statistics of the reporter, China National Heavy Duty Truck Corporation will increase its sales target from 80,000 units to 100,000 units per year. According to data from the China Automobile Association, its sales from January to September were 78,116 units, and 78.11% of the annual plan has been completed. As long as the average sales volume is guaranteed in the fourth quarter, it should be no problem to complete the set goals.
In the first half of this year, Shaanxi Automobile increased its sales target from 50,000 units to 60,000 units. From January to September, it sold 44,717 heavy trucks and completed 74.53% of the annual target. The situation in the fourth quarter was also more optimistic.
As the fastest growing company in the first half of the year, Foton increased its sales target this year from 40,000 to 60,000 units, up 50%. Its sales from January to September were 43,665 units, completing 72.78% of the annual target. Due to uncertainties in the market, there will be some effort in the fourth quarter.
Dongfeng sold 66,477 heavy trucks from January to September. It is understood that it has raised its sales target three times since March. Its Tianlong brand heavy truck sales are good, and it sold nearly 3,000 vehicles in September alone. According to Dongfeng insiders, Dongfeng Tianlong's year-end sales will exceed 20,000 vehicles.
From August, China National Heavy Duty Truck has been ranked first in the industry for two consecutive months. As for the current market situation in which heavy-duty truck sales decline in the second half of the year, Wang Wenyu told reporters that the impact on China's heavy truck is not significant, and its leading product dump trucks and cement mixers are now ranking first in the industry. However, for the currently weakened market demand, CNHTC has made some adjustments to the sales of tractors.
According to Wang Wenyu, the total sales volume of China National Heavy Duty Truck Co., Ltd. is the first, but it is mainly export-oriented and relatively weak in the domestic market. Therefore, the Group adopted some preferential measures on the commercial policies of the tractors and strengthened its after-sales service work. From the sales performance in the months of September and October, the Group achieved remarkable results.
The development of Shaanxi Auto has certain representation. Shanxi Keqiang Marketing Manager Liu Keqiang told reporters that despite the decline in sales in the second half of the year, Shaanxi Automobile still achieved a year-on-year increase of more than 100%.
Liu Keqiang told reporters that there is a noticeable explosive growth in demand for domestic heavy trucks in overseas markets this year, which has greatly helped companies complete their sales plans.
According to Liu Keqiang, as of the end of September, Shaanxi Automobile's export heavy trucks had already approached 4,000 vehicles, and its exports last year did not reach 2000 vehicles. In particular, heavy demand for heavy trucks in Russia is very strong. This year, Shaanxi Auto has only reached 2,000 vehicles for Russian exports. Liu Keqiang said that in Russia, Chinese-brand high-power tractors and dump trucks are relatively easy to sell, while the Delong F2000 of Shaanxi Auto has been more attractive to Russian users familiar with Mantech because of the use of MAN's cab. .
Liu Keqiang said that Shaanxi Automobile raised the sales target based on the correct judgment of the development of the heavy truck market in the second half of the year, and has taken into account the factors of market decline. From October's orders, it is much better than previously expected, which has a certain influence on both Shaanxi Automobile and Hande Axle won the Chinese famous brand title. In addition, the second phase of the Shaanqi Industrial Park has been put into use, the production capacity problem has been solved, coupled with the good situation of the export market, so it is very confident for the completion of this year's target.
In addition, the reporter learned from the relevant person in charge of Dongfeng and Futian that due to preparations for the market downturn, the year-end targets can all be completed as planned.
At present, the above-mentioned companies have stated that they are preparing for the soon-to-be-widely promoted national 3 products, and have successively conducted training on the country's 3 after-sales services for their respective service stations.
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