In 2016, China will embark on the “13th Five-Year Plan†journey. After experiencing the sales peak of the truck market in 2010, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the Chinese truck market seems to have been weak and people feel that the “Golden Decade†is short-lived. In the meantime, in addition to the continued decline in market sales, changes in users, Internet+, and smart cars have also become frequent vocabularies in the truck market from 2011 to 2015.
There are too many variables in the future truck market sales, and it is difficult to predict accurately. However, according to the hot topics and hot spots in the market, what characteristics will be presented in the future market can be analyzed and explored.
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During the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the Internet economy has emerged and flourished, and many people have defined the profit model of the Internet economy as "Dai Pang Kong Mang Long Bao?谩R郧埃宦凼?宦凼?a href='http://' target='_blank'>The driver of the heavy truck and light truck will not only drive but will raise the car, but the vehicle will have some minor problems that can be completely solved by himself. The biggest feature of this generation of drivers is that the vehicle will be used, the vehicle is not air-conditioned, and the seat is uncomfortable. As long as the vehicle is fuel-efficient, it can run, and it can make money. Pointing to the culture of the truck driver is a kind of Pan lesson screen?
However, with the growth of the new generation of drivers after the 1980s and 1990s, the logistics market has already entered the post-standardization of logistics. After the transformation, the logistics market has entered the post? Speaking of South Korea, Ottawa, O.S., S., S., Hussein, S.S.
Mainly reflected in two aspects:
1. In terms of light trucks, truck drivers in the 1980s and 1990s are not the same as drivers of the older generation. When they purchase vehicles, they use the means of production as the basic principle. Because of the improvement of living standards, the drivers of the 80s and 90s live and work. The quality has also been correspondingly improved and pursued. When purchasing vehicles, besides value of the means of production, whether the vehicle has air-conditioning, whether the seats are comfortable, whether there are soft requirements such as on-board MP3s have become the basis for purchasing vehicles.
2. With the increasing standardization of trunk logistics, the proportion of individuals buying cars to run long distances is getting lower and lower. Logistics and freight companies have become the main buyers of logistic heavy trucks. Whether they are from the attendance of vehicles or the corporate image of logistics fleets, logistics When choosing a heavy-duty truck, the company's fuel consumption, reliability, interior and exterior all become issues that need to be considered when purchasing vehicles. Logistics companies usually purchase vehicles in bulk, so the bargaining power of truck users will be stronger than before.
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Internet-based truck ecosystem will emerge
“Internet+†is a very hot topic in recent years. Thousands of industries are thinking about how to use the Internet and their own industries. The auto industry is no exception. The “Internet +†in the truck sector mentioned here does not refer to some car-cake matching schemes, but rather to the Internet-based truck ecosystem.
Ma Huateng once said that the Internet in the future is the left content and the right one is connected. The author thinks that in the social ecosystem that is mapped to trucks, it is the left product, the right one is connected, and the connection is about online payment.
At the Wuhan International Commercial Vehicle Show held in November 2015, many truck OEMs stated that they will pay more attention to the user's lifestyle in the future and use the Internet to build an ecosystem of truck users. In other words, truck OEMs are now paying more and more attention to community culture. When the community culture is recognized and the user base rises to the corresponding order of magnitude, numerous business models can evolve. In the simplest case, in the ecosystem of truck users, truck companies can easily use the form of "circle + electricity supplier" to complete vehicle sales.
Services and finance or will appear diversity
In the era of user label change, the organizational form has shifted from a single retailer to a logistics company, not only has the demand for vehicle upgrades for vehicle products, but also has an additional demand for vehicle services, which will inevitably bring about upgrading of truck manufacturers' services. The same can be seen from two aspects:
First, in the eyes of a new generation of drivers: You have to be able to help me do vehicle maintenance services, but I personally feel the atmosphere of service; self-defense awareness will be stronger, especially in the social explosion, the people from the media In this era, when users encounter unfair treatment, the negative energy information handed out through the network can not be ignored in view of the speed and speed of dissemination.
Second, users of the logistics company type, because of the large number of operating vehicles, the possibility of tending to a single brand is low, logistics companies have multiple comparisons of vehicle service timeliness, maintenance, etc., resulting in manufacturers in order to better retain customers. There will be more affordable policies on the service.
According to statistics, in 2014, the scale of China's auto consumption finance was 400 billion yuan, and it is expected that by 2015, China's auto consumption finance will reach the order of 650 billion to 700 billion orders of magnitude. In the eyes of people in the industry, with the rise of young groups after the 80s and even after the 90s, which will bring about changes in the consumption habits of the auto market, the domestic auto financial market penetration process will be greatly accelerated.
The financial market of China's truck market is still in its infancy. It basically concentrates on financing loans for vehicle procurement, and it rarely involves vehicle insurance and post-market finance. Currently, more than 80% of the profits from domestic car dealerships come from new car sales, but the profit from after-sales consumer services such as car leasing, used cars, vehicle maintenance and auto consumer insurance accounts for less than 20%. The U.S. auto industry's post-market profit rate exceeds 70%. Reliance on one-time loans for new car sales, profit growth is too modest, and it is also susceptible to macroeconomic and cyclical fluctuations in the industry, and pulling market afterwards can help increase the diversity of profit growth methods. With the truck market entering a rational growth period, trucks The spread of finance will become the norm.
New energy logistics vehicle will rise
Along with the policy benefits, local governments have spared no effort in promoting new energy vehicles. This is also the biggest hot spot for new energy to become the current automobile market. This is accompanied by the influx of multi-party capital. New energy vehicles have also become a fertilizer on the air. pig.
However, as new energy vehicles were trial-produced, passenger cars and passenger cars sprang up suddenly, and the trucks showed a slight decline. This situation began to reverse in 2015. The frequent delivery of pure electric sanitation vehicles and the pilot operation of urban pure electric logistics vehicles are all in order. Pointing to the era of pure electric trucks is coming.
Sanitation car procurement operations, involving municipal projects, the color of government behavior is higher than the market color, and pure electric logistics vehicle is everything based on market operations as the keynote.
At present, Beijing, Tianjin, Hangzhou and other cities have begun to issue bans on three-wheeled motorcycles and electric three-wheeled vehicles in urban areas. The distribution of the express delivery industry is bound to be affected, and the restrictions imposed by the entry of diesel vehicles into the city are also constrained. Pure-electric logistics vehicles are bound to be transferred. Joining and replacing with the end links has become the main mode of transportation for most express delivery companies to complete the “last mileâ€, which can improve traffic order, reduce environmental pollution, and increase distribution efficiency.
The city's pure electric logistics vehicle mainly solves the problem of city landing allocation. Its transport distance is not as high as the trunk logistics requirement. It is a point-to-point transportation mode within the city. It can basically meet the capacity at 150 kilometers per day, and the current battery provides cruising miles. Basically, it can satisfy such market segments. In the “last mile†solution, pure electric light trucks or VAN models can achieve transportation tasks. Perhaps, in the next 2-3 years, the city pure electric logistics will be a blue ocean market.
Intelligent truck concept
In 2015, German ZF demonstrated its innovative truck. With just one finger, you can control reverse, turn, or park over 25 meters in length, 2.5 meters in width, and a full load of 40 tons of trucks. It is reported that ZF's products use intelligent transmission and steering technology in combination with in-vehicle communication to enable trucks to remotely control the use of tablet computers.
Also in 2015, the "Freightliner Inspiration" model, which was deeply modified on Daimler's 18-wheel hub, became the world's first self-driving truck to obtain a license plate. It is understood that the car's built-in autopilot module will activate. Always maintain a safe distance from the vehicle in front. When a fault occurs, the driver will be prompted to intervene. If no response is given within five seconds, it will stop.
Whether it's a pad control truck or a driverless driver, and peeling off these performances, what we discovered is human exploration of smart trucks. Everyone is unanimously optimistic about smart trucks. At present, people think about the model of smart trucks, mainly in the "two screens and one cloud."
In the future, there is no steering wheel, no clutch, no gearbox in the truck cab, and there are only two screens. One of the screens is used to complete the operation of the vehicle, steering, parking and parking. The other screen is larger. Data cloud connection, real-time understanding of the road conditions in front of the weather and the vehicle's fuel remaining.
Some people may think that the so-called smart trucks are unrealistic, but we will recall that history will find that many things or ideas are actually unrealistic and evolutionary. For example, printers have almost become standard in the office. Everyone is surprised. , But who can think of, a hundred years ago, human beings only existed in the fantasy of the printer.
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