In 2010, driven by the country’s 4 trillion investment stimulus plan, China’s heavy truck industry experienced an unprecedented blowout growth. Since 2011, under the influence of macroeconomic policies such as control-based structural adjustment, inflation control, and growth protection, the heavy truck industry in the beginning of the 12th Five-Year Plan has lowered its industry growth expectations and shifted its focus from sales to market. Share. From the trend of heavy truck companies in the first quarter of 2011, it is possible to predict the heavy truck market conditions in the second quarter of 2011 and even the second half of 2011.
First, the heavy truck industry market analysis in the first quarter of 2011
1. Sales of each company
The first quarter of 2011 has ended. Looking at the sales situation in the first quarter of 2011, due to favorable factors such as early advance scheduling by various companies and early start-up of construction vehicles, the heavy-duty truck market did not appear to shrink as previously forecast. Sales exceeded 290,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 7%. Although the overall market sales situation of the industry is relatively optimistic, the sales performance of various companies varies greatly.
From the perspective of sales volume, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicles, China National Heavy Duty Trucks and FAW Jiefang ranked the top three, followed by Shaanxi Auto. It is worth noting that FAW's liberation was affected by the downturn in the tractor market and it was the only company in the industry to decline year-on-year. In addition, the drop was as high as 22%. In addition, due to the strong impact of Shaanxi Automobile and Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, the overall sales volume of China Heavy Duty Truck Dumper grew weakly, which was basically the same as that of the same period of last year.
2. Model sales analysis
Judging from the vehicle structure, the overall trend in the first quarter of 2011 was a dramatic increase in the number of construction vehicles such as dump trucks and mixer trucks, a small increase in trucks, and a declining trend for tractors. This trend continued into April due to the following reasons:
1Dump trucks and mixer trucks grow greatly. First of all, all companies learn lessons from the loss of orders due to the long delivery time of dump trucks in the first half of 2010. At the end of 2010, a large number of dump trucks were pre-harvested, which drastically promoted the growth of dump truck sales; , The unfinished projects in 2010 continued construction in 2011 and became the rigid demand for dump trucks in the first quarter of 2011; in addition, the government continued to increase the renovation of shanty towns such as cities, mining areas, and forest areas in 2011 and ensured the construction of affordable housing. The intensity of construction of rural water conservancy and highway pipeline network in the western region has further driven the steady growth of demand for dump trucks. The comprehensive effect created the hot situation of the dump truck market in the first quarter of 2011.
2 trucks grew small. Considering the trend of LTL freight rates in the second half of 2010, it was found that from the second half of 2010, LTL freight rates showed a steady growth trend. Given the characteristics of LNG freight distribution based on LTL, the LNG was loaded in 2011. A small increase in vehicle sales should not be a problem.
3 The tractor fell sharply. The explosive growth of tractors in 2010 drastically overdrawn some of the demand in 2011. There were too many operational vehicles and there was no significant increase in the overall logistics and freight volume, which led to the current low price of tractor freight and the reduction of operating income. In addition, the fuel cost as the largest part of the cost of haulage vehicle operations, with the continuous rise in the price of oil, and further increase; even some users after comprehensive consideration of income and expenditure, had to stop operations. It can be said that the current sales volume of tractors is mainly concentrated on the renewal of vehicles with fixed supply, and there is little demand for new vehicles.
3. Industry Inventory Status
At present, the entire industry is generally concerned about the issue of corporate inventory. After doing a lot of research, it was found that the current industry inventory is conservatively estimated at more than 220,000. Among them, a north dump truck company has more than 65,000 inventories, and the northeast and south two mainstream companies have more than 40,000 inventories, and the western and northern strong companies have an inventories of about 20,000. Considering that the central bank frequently raises the deposit reserve ratio and keeps raising interest rates, the terminal delivery rate will continue to be slow, so high inventory will continue into the first half of the year. In a sense, the current companies are fighting for the financial resources in the first half of 2010. In addition, the various manufacturers have to deal with the inventory. It is very likely that some models will be promoted to reduce inventory. This situation is worth paying attention to.
Second, the market sales forecast in the second quarter of 2011
In the second quarter, with the continuous escalation of inflation warnings, the central bank will continue to introduce tightening monetary policies to respond. Therefore, in the second quarter, the monetary assets of various financial deposit and loan institutions are bound to tighten again, which is undoubtedly a bad news for the heavy truck industry and its upstream and downstream industries. Considering the current financial situation and the structure of sales of heavy truck products, we can make the following predictions about the sales trends of the heavy truck industry in the second quarter:
Towing vehicles: Affected by rising transportation costs such as oil prices and tolls and tightening policies, the long-distance transportation market will be in a downturn. In the period when the current vehicle transportation price does not increase, the demand for road vehicles in the second quarter is unlikely to have a big improvement. At the end of the second quarter, as the transportation volume of agricultural and sideline products, building materials, and thermal coal increased, there was a possibility that the transportation prices would increase by the height of the ship, which may cause the demand for highway vehicles to pick up. It is expected that the tractor sales in the second quarter will be about 105,000 units, down 12% year-on-year.
Dump Truck: The second quarter of each year is the peak period of the country's urban reform and infrastructure construction. However, due to financing issues, the construction of small and medium-sized real estate projects in the city may slow down. This is because the financial support of the central and local governments strongly supports affordable housing and infrastructure construction. Some of the construction projects will not be affected, and at the same time, heavy truck users will also face major obstacles in paying for their cars in installments. Therefore, sales of construction vehicles such as dump trucks may have declined in the second quarter. It is expected that the sales volume in the second quarter will be approximately 120,000, which is basically the same as last year.
From the analysis and forecast of the sales volume of sub-companies, although the current heavy truck demand is not clear in the second quarter, but by comprehensive analysis of the current industry vehicle demand structure, the company's production capacity, order trends, inventory, outbound speed and other factors, but also can roughly determine 2011 In the second quarter of the year, the sales volume of each company is obviously the structure of those models that is suitable for the current market demand, sufficient capacity, strong orders, and less inventory. It will be able to seize the opportunity in the second quarter and come to the fore.
Judging from the macroeconomic situation and the policies and regulations affecting the demand for heavy trucks, considering comprehensively the current orders and stocks of various companies, it is estimated that the sales volume of the industry in the second quarter of 2011 will reach the level of 300,000 units, and the annual sales volume will be around 900,000 vehicles. It is expected that more than 65% of sales in the industry will be released in the first half of the year, and the second half of the year will enter the downturn period of the heavy truck market. In other words, the year 2011 will show a trend of high sales before low sales.
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