It seems that within a week, the policy of new energy power batteries has been concentrated. On November 22nd, the website of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the "Regulations for Automotive Power Battery Industry (2017)" (hereinafter referred to as "Standard Conditions") for comments, stipulating that "the annual production capacity of lithium-ion power battery cells enterprises should not be less than 8 billion watt-hours." "The 40-fold capacity increase requires a rapid detonation of the industry." A few days later, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology put forward at the publicity meeting on further improving the safety supervision and application of new energy vehicles. "From January 1, 2017, the application for the new catalogue of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be ternary." For passenger cars with batteries, a third-party test report should be submitted at the same time." This is considered to be the restoration of the qualification of the ternary lithium battery bus to apply for a new energy recommendation catalog.
Almost at the same time, another news from a power battery policy development expert was widely disseminated. "The power battery catalogue is an industry standard condition. After discussion, it is considered that it should not be linked to the new energy vehicle promotion catalog. The battery only needs to meet the "new energy vehicle production." Subsidies can be obtained for the relevant technical standards of the Enterprise and Product Access Management Regulations (Revised Draft for Soliciting Opinions). However, as of press time, no official agencies responded.
On December 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Interim Measures for the Management of Recycling and Utilization of Power Battery for New Energy Vehicles" (Draft for Comment) to publicly solicit opinions, and once again improve the entry barrier for power batteries.
The concentrated release of a number of policy intentions has revived the power battery industry. Is it a turnaround? Or is the threshold high? The 40-fold capacity requirement is considered to kill almost all power battery companies, but the “ban†of the ternary battery has already ushered in the industry’s “reopening†cheers.
The release of the forecast of the link makes the policy attitude more confusing. If it is linked, the threshold of 8 billion capacity will keep most of the battery companies out of the subsidy gate; if it is not linked, what is the significance of setting such a high production capacity threshold? Because the "Automobile Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2017)" (hereinafter referred to as "Standard Conditions") is a non-mandatory certification, it is not binding on the use and promotion of power batteries.
Policy fog
"Everyone's understanding has problems." Wang Zidong, director of the 863 Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology's major electric vehicle power battery testing center, opened the door to the industry's understanding of the industry's "free lifting" of the ternary battery and the surge in production capacity.
At the end of January this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that due to the safety risks, the suspension of the ternary lithium battery bus was included in the list of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. At the end of November, the ternary lithium battery was re-opened at the gate. In the "Notice on Further Improving the Safety Supervision and Application of New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application" (completed "Notice"), there are 160 new energy vehicle companies participating in the news, as long as the certificate is submitted to meet the "Safety Technical Conditions for Electric Buses" The third-party test report, the bus using the ternary lithium battery can be returned to the product catalog. “There is no lifting of the ban, but instead it is restricted by higher requirements.†Wang Dongdong stressed that more attention should be paid to the release of “Safety Technical Conditions for Electric Busesâ€, which has “battery unit heat†for rechargeable energy storage systems. The requirements of tests such as “runaway test†and “thermal runaway expansion test of rechargeable energy storage system†are the new standards based on the safety risk assessment of electric buses in January-April this year, and will also comprehensively upgrade the ternary lithium battery bus. The technical entry barrier.
In any case, the industry entry of the ternary lithium-ion battery bus, which has been suspended for one year, has reopened, which is quite exciting for the new energy vehicle sector. In a sense, this also distracts the industry’s power battery specification issued a few days ago. Conditions") attention and controversy in the draft for comments.
For the "Lithium-ion power battery cells, the annual production capacity is not less than 8 billion watt hours".
The skeptics believe that according to the current enterprise expansion plan, the companies that are expected to meet the battery capacity requirements are BYD, CATL and Guoxuan Hi-Tech. The three production capacity at the end of 2017 is 16GWh (1 billion watt-hours), 16GWh and 10.7GWh respectively.
Cao Wenpeng, a battery industry expert and director of the Drip Strategy Cooperation Department, also provided data. Currently, the top ten battery manufacturers in the world (mainly lithium batteries), the number one Japanese Matsushita capacity in the first half of 2016 is only 3 billion. VA, Panasonic's 1860 ternary lithium battery is mainly supplied to Tesla. The second place BYD's capacity in the first half of the year was 1.5 billion watt-hours; the first half of the Ningde era, which was tied with BYD, was also 1.5 billion watt-hours. "The 8 billion watt-hour capacity threshold is equivalent to killing all battery companies."
According to data released by Liu Yanlong, secretary general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, in 2015, the total number of power batteries for the whole vehicle was 16.68 billion watt-hours, and the total matching amount in the first half of this year was only 6.67 billion watt-hours. It is estimated that by the end of 2016, the national power battery planning capacity will reach 60 billion watt-hours, but the capacity utilization rate can only reach 50%. The doubters believe that a large amount of production capacity has been released.
Regarding the doubt, Wang Zidong said with firm attitude, "I said a few years ago that China's power battery industry must cultivate enterprises with the right to speak in the world, otherwise we will be destroyed by the whole army! In the power battery industry, we can no longer In the maritime tactics, we must go to the level and scale." In 2015, there were more than 150 power battery companies supporting the whole vehicle in China, and will increase to 160 in 2016. The large enterprises entering the catalogue are generally in short supply. Small-scale battery companies are increasing in size. Through the merger and reorganization, the call to establish a battery leading enterprise has always existed.
For the threshold of 8 billion watt-hours, Wang Zidong calculated an account: For a passenger car company, the production scale of 100,000 cars is the starting point of an economic batch, and the battery pack is 30-40kWh (kWh). The total energy calculation will require a battery supply of 3 to 4 billion watt-hours/year, which is equivalent to the demand for 13,000 to 18,000 electric bus batteries. “The country hopes that China can reach the sales of 2 million electric vehicles by 2020. Calculating the production scale of a medium- and large-scale battery company.â€
The ternary blue sea that smells the wind
Regardless of the policy intentions, the ternary lithium battery has quickly demonstrated the strong growth momentum from the Blue Ocean to the Red Sea. According to statistics, in November alone, nine companies invested in expansion of power battery projects, including the expansion of production of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Lixin Jiangsu, Yufu shares, Camel shares, etc. are all ternary lithium batteries, Among them, Lixin (Jiangsu), which was just established in June this year, has an annual output of 40 billion watt-hours. According to the expansion plan of domestic battery companies, the planned capacity of the power battery industry in 2017 will reach 90 billion watt-hours.
According to public data, in 2015, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 69% of the total energy supply of new energy vehicles. Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 69%, ternary batteries accounted for 27%, and other systems accounted for about 4%. Cao Wenpeng believes that from the perspective of technological advancement, ternary batteries are the future development direction, especially in passenger cars and special vehicles. With the new standard of ternary battery safety technology, the demand for policy suppression will be released quickly in the short term. .
"The policy is intended to promote the development of the technical direction of the ternary battery based on the technology of lithium iron phosphate battery. The most obvious signal is that both BYD and Ningde era are developing ternary lithium batteries. Their current main products are Lithium iron phosphate battery." For the 2018 ternary battery production ratio will be overtake the iron system, is expected to reach the 36.5GWh forecast, Cao Wenpeng said, "the possibility is very large, the iron-lithium battery has reached its peak."
Liu Yanlong also pointed out that in the future, it is necessary to speed up the adjustment of the structure of power battery products. "After the market is opened in the next few years, the high-specific energy ternary material battery will accelerate development. At present, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is still too large, and enterprises should pay attention to prevent risks." . Another point of view pointed out that the first step is to set the high capacity threshold of the battery, and then let go of the qualification of the ternary lithium battery bus. The echo of the policy is there.
Another variable that may be faced by power batteries, including ternary batteries, is the variable relationship between the list of power battery catalogues and the new energy catalogue and subsidies. “The subsidy policy is currently not linked to the battery list. It does not mean that it will not be linked in the future, nor does it mean that other policies will not be linked to it.†Zhou Peng, CEO of Huaying (Changzhou) Power Technology Co., Ltd. said.
This risk assessment is accelerating the reshuffle of power battery companies. On November 25th, SK Innovation (hereinafter referred to as SKI), a subsidiary of South Korea's third largest enterprise group, the Group, announced plans to suspend its joint venture in China. South Korea's SKI said that this is a decision made in consideration of the newly issued "Regulations" (draft for comment). It is reported that SKI and the other two Korean battery companies Samsung SDI and LG Chemical, which have already established factories in China, are far from the threshold of 8 billion watts. After smashing the ternary battery ban, Korean battery companies have once again encountered production capacity thresholds. The industry believes that the storm in the field of power batteries is far from over.
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