According to statistics, in 2014, automobile production and sales both exceeded 23 million, and vehicle ownership exceeded 130 million. Since 2009, China's automobile production and sales have ranked first in the world for six consecutive years. Experts attending the meeting believe that in 2015, although China's auto production and sales are unlikely to continue high growth, opportunities for medium and high-speed growth still exist. The rapid development of the automobile industry has also brought huge business opportunities to the overall industrial chain. The used car and imported car market will face deep adjustment.
Passenger cars show steady growth characteristics Many research institutes predict that China's economic growth rate will remain at around 7% in 2015, which will be the lowest speed in years. Affected by the slowdown in GDP growth, the automotive market has also entered a relatively stable growth phase.
Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Joint Conference, believes that after the painful adjustment of the auto market in 2014, the development of the passenger car market in 2015 will be more difficult than in 2014. Based on the data of the 13% growth rate of passenger car sales in 2014, the growth of the passenger car market in 2015 is expected to be 10%, which is the result of the joint forecast of more than 40 domestic car companies.
However, in the automotive industry analyst Jia Xinguang, it is not easy for the passenger car market to achieve 10% sales growth. "The various factors affecting the growth of the automobile market this year have more harm than good. The current state is unlikely to introduce a policy to stimulate automobile consumption, and the passenger vehicle market will not increase by 20%-30%." Jia Xinguang believes that Due to the lack of confidence in the domestic auto market to achieve internal growth, in this context, the growth rate of the auto market this year will not be very high, and it can be good to maintain the level of last year. The only good news is that domestic consumers' purchasing power is not a problem.
The reporter's investigation found that the companies that have announced their sales targets are also more cautious about the growth rate this year. It is reported that Beijing Hyundai announced its 2015 sales target of 1.16 million units, with a target growth rate of 3.5%; Toyota Motor's target sales volume was 1.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%.
In this regard, Cui Dongshu believes that in the fourth quarter of 2014, there were many problems in the passenger car market, especially in the luxury car market, where the price collapsed in September last year, resulting in the price system has not recovered. At the same time, the pressure on dealer inventory began to appear at the end of last year. “There has never been a case of Reducing the inventory by 110,000 units in a single month, but it appeared in December last year. Usually the dealers clear inventory is carried out at the beginning of each year, so it can be said that in December 2014, the overdraft was overdue in January 2015. The sales volume of this market is huge for 2015, which is unimaginable. "Cui Dongshu said.
According to the forecast of the National Passenger Car Market Joint Conference, this year's market sales growth rate is 10%. Currently, the city's sales growth has been zero growth, and in cities that have not yet been restricted, the sales growth of individual cities may reach 14%. %-15%.
The use of used cars to achieve leap-forward growth With the development of the automotive market, the demand for replacement and replacement continues to rise, and used car transactions are developing at a high speed. According to data from the China Automobile Dealers Association, the number of used car transactions reached 6.053 million in 2014, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%. Shen Rong, deputy secretary general of China Automobile Dealers Association, said that the Chinese auto market has bid farewell to the era of high growth, and the buyer's market pattern has begun to show up. The combination of new and used cars in the auto market will become closer. From the current data, the growth rate of the new car market is gradually slowing down, while used cars are beginning to accelerate, and the future may become a new engine for industrial development.
Yan Jinghui, deputy general manager of the Asian Games Village Auto Trading Market, also said that urban environmental protection, road congestion and energy conservation and emission reduction have brought great pressure on the auto market. To maintain the sustainable development of the automotive market to revitalize the stock, is to stimulate the replacement of used cars, and increase the contribution of used car transactions to new car sales. China's used car market has great potential. It is necessary to promote the circulation of used cars and maintain the sustainable development of the automobile market, while providing consumers with better and more choices.
According to Yuan Bing, deputy general manager of Beijing Zhuojiexing Brokerage Co., Ltd., by 2020, the transaction volume of China's used car market is expected to reach 40 million, and the market value will exceed 1 trillion yuan. Faced with a market with a potential of tens of billions of dollars, capital has entered the market, and the business model of the used car market is also facing changes. Second-hand car e-commerce continues to be the focus of business model innovation.
However, in Yan Jinghui's view, the sales of new cars in the Beijing auto market last year did not imagine a large decline, and the growth figures only have a lot to do with the temporary increase in scrap car subsidies. Especially last December. At the same time, the second-hand car did not have a high growth rate, because the second-hand car subsidy in the second half of last year was the scrapped car, which directly increased the sales of new cars, and the trading volume of used cars did not increase due to the restrictions on the use of used cars in various places. obvious.
In this regard, Shen Rong pointed out that the poor circulation of used cars caused by the restriction policy will be transmitted to the new car market. At the same time, the decline in the price of the car will cause the asset value to shrink. Taking Beijing as an example, the price loss caused by the decline in vehicle turnover has reached 10 billion yuan. According to him, the Ministry of Commerce is conducting investigations on issues such as restrictions and restrictions. The China Automobile Dealers Association has submitted a report to the Ministry of Environmental Protection on the proposal to uniformly move into the same emission standards as local vehicles in use, and has received attention from relevant departments. The first quarter or will get a solution.
The statistics on imported car sales or the latest imported car sales data that will fall into the trough show that the market with a slight improvement in 2014 will end, and this year's situation is not optimistic. From the perspective of the whole year of 2014, China imported a total of 1.423 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21.6%, an increase of nearly three years.
"The growth rate of the imported car market this year may fall to the lowest in five years, and the first single digit increase." Wang Cun, senior manager of the sales department of SINOMACH, said that since the second half of 2014, China's imported car supply and demand Contradictions have become increasingly prominent, so the growth rate of the domestic imported car market will slow down to around 10% in 2015.
In fact, although the imported car market had an inventory warning in the second half of last year, the customs import volume of auto companies has not been adjusted at all. Statistics show that in 2014, China sold a total of 1,157,500 imported cars, a year-on-year increase of 13.2%. From the simple calculation of automobile imports and sales in the whole year of last year, there are about 260,000 imported car stocks.
For the market situation far beyond the demand, the inventory of imported cars has increased significantly. Since July 2014, the situation has deteriorated, significantly exceeding the level of the same period last year. From November to December, the inventory depth of imported car dealers reached 4.2 months, exceeding the peak of inventory in 2012. By the end of December last year, there were still 130,000 inventories. According to the experience of SINOMACH's inventory adjustment in 2012, the highest value of inventory at that time was 3.9 months, and the adjustment time took 3 quarters. Therefore, in the face of high inventory, SINOMACY judged that imported car dealers may use it in 2015. Digest inventory throughout the year.
At the same time, imported car companies quickly introduce the best-selling models for domestic production, which will also affect the overall sales of imported cars. In 2015, there will be 60 new cars in the imported car market, but the number of new models is limited. On the contrary, the number of models converted from domestic imports has been further expanded, and the sales volume of the imported car market will further shrink this year.
"The state's reform of the tax system is likely to shift from the production process of the factory to the consumption link, coupled with the loss of domestic models, it is expected that the price system of imported cars will be re-adjusted in 2015. Although this is a positive factor in the long run, However, in the short term, the market will wait and see, and the growth rate of the imported car market will be affected again. “Jia Xinguang predicted that the growth rate of the imported car market in 2015 may show a single-digit growth, reaching the lowest value in the past five years.
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