Despite the slowdown in economic growth and the difficulties faced by SMEs in financing, it may still be enough to change the current tightening monetary policy. However, there are also many people in the industry who are concerned that if the current situation of SMEs facing rising raw materials and financing difficulties continues, it may lead to more and more companies to abandon their industries and turn to other non-industrial investment areas, which may intensify some The state of industrial hollowness in the region.
According to newly released data, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 52% in May, down 0.9% from 52.9% in April, and continued to show a downward trend, indicating that the momentum of continued growth in manufacturing growth has slowed. .
Changes in the macro data have also been microscopically proven. Due to difficulties in financing and rising raw material costs, the profitability of some SMEs continued to be squeezed. A survey conducted by the Ministry of Commerce shows that in its sample of 35 companies surveyed, nearly a quarter of them are close to a loss, while corporate profits exceed 5% of less than 10 companies. The survey also showed that the above-mentioned companies mainly belong to traditional industries such as glasses, lighters, and pens.
The above survey also shows that, in addition to the ongoing problems of labor costs and rising raw material prices, financing difficulties are one of the most recent problems reflected, and this is in turn related to the continuing tight monetary policy since last year.
Wang Yong, a professor at the Zhengzhou Training Institute of the People's Bank of China, believes that the current problems in the fracture of some companies' capital chains still require detailed analysis of specific issues. This is a common phenomenon or a case. Only after a clear investigation can we determine the next policy direction.
Hard to relax policy
In fact, even large-scale SMEs have closed down due to financial problems. However, because prices are still high, the current tightening policy does not have much room for maneuver.
The data shows that the prices of agricultural and sideline products such as pork and eggs have risen again in recent times. Monitoring data showed that the national egg price began to rise in mid-April, and the rate of increase since May has been markedly accelerated.
In addition, due to the drought in some provinces and cities in the south, vegetable prices are still rising.
"Overall, a 5% break in the CPI in May may not be a suspense. In this case, the austerity policy has no loose possibility." Wang Yong said.
Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping also believes that the CPI increase in May may once again hit a new high in the past two years, and even not rule out the possibility of continuing to rise in June and July, the current monetary policy will continue to focus on "suppression of inflation" .
Even those who are close to the decision-making level believe that even if the CPI growth rate can return below 5% in the second half of the year, the current monetary policy is unlikely to be significantly loosened.
Worries about increasing industrial hollowness
Constrained by continued tight monetary policy, industry insiders worry that it may aggravate the hollowing out of the industry in some regions.
Huo Jianguo, dean of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that the current production difficulties may cause more companies to leave the industry and invest in non-industrial areas. This phenomenon deserves attention.
“I originally had workshops and workshops, but after I entered the production of raw materials as scheduled, due to various factors such as rising labor costs and RMB appreciation, the final income may not be as good as that of spotting cotton or silver, and I would not have to work at all. If you sell it on the contrary, there will be 10% or even 20% of the income, which is worth our attention.†Huo Jianguo said.
According to a survey conducted by the Wenzhou Small and Medium Enterprises Promotion Association, in Wenzhou alone, there were more than 1,000 manufacturing and affiliated companies that had their business licenses revoked in 2010 and caused many related problems such as unemployed employees, raising concerns about the hollowing out of the industry.
In this regard, some people in the industry believe that for the survival difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises in some traditional industries, relevant departments need to establish a set of policy adjustment tools to increase support for SMEs' innovation capabilities so as to promote their transformation and upgrading as soon as possible.
Zheng Yongjun, dean of the MBA School of Zhejiang Gongshang University, believes that in order to solve the problem of industrial hollowing out, the government should not only strengthen industry guidance and policy support, but also should do three things: enhance the long-term investment incentives of enterprises, and promote the production-oriented enterprises to the operating companies. Change and break through the bottleneck of human resources.
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