In January-February this year, rising crude oil raised the prices of most petrochemical products, especially the cost center of midstream products. However, in March, the cost boosting factors began to be subject to the actual downstream demand of the chemical industry. Some industry insiders believe that the marginal effect of rising costs such as crude oil is gradually declining, and a batch of chemicals with higher growth in the early stage will face price corrections. The vast majority of product prices remained stable or rose slightly from the previous quarter. The number of rising products was 25, accounting for 37%, and the chemicals ranked first in the forefront were hydrochloric acid, sulfur and nitric acid, of which hydrochloric acid increased by 8.7% in a single week; the price held steady by the product accounted for 46%; The top of the drop list is polysilicon, ethylene glycol and acetic acid. Of the above 68 chemical products, more than 90% of the chain price changes within 2%.
The cost of crude oil is still the main factor affecting the price changes of chemical products in the near future. However, comparing the situation in the past few weeks, it can be found that the marginal effect of rising crude oil costs is decreasing. According to Zhang Ming, a senior analyst at the business community, international crude oil has continued to fluctuate at high levels for a long time, but recently it has only provided certain support for its direct downstream products such as pure benzene and toluene, and its impact on the entire chemical industry has weakened. Among other cost factors, the factors for the promotion of liquid chlorine, liquid ammonia, and pure benzene are still relatively obvious. Affected by this, the ex-factory prices of chemicals such as hydrochloric acid, concentrated nitric acid, and acetone have risen, but actual transactions have been sluggish.
The supportive effect of high raw material costs on products gradually began to be subject to the actual downstream demand of the products, which was particularly evident in the chemical market last week. Zhang Ming told reporters that the market demand for most chemical products did not significantly improve. Only urea benefited from the return of green manure in the northeast region, and demand continued to rise.
Taking the example of hydrochloric acid at the top of the list, the decline in February was once as high as 30%. The recent warming in the market is due to rising costs. The monitoring data shows that the mainstream average price of 31% synthetic hydrochloric acid rebounded from 153 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week to 167 yuan/ton at the end of last week, and the rebound rate reached 8.7% in one week.
The rise of liquid chlorine in raw materials directly boosted the production cost of hydrochloric acid and drove the price of hydrochloric acid to stop falling and rebounding last week. However, due to the overall inventory pressure of the main downstream chlor-alkali industry of hydrochloric acid is still relatively large, the price of alkali products has long been low, so the actual transaction in the hydrochloric acid market is relatively light. The industry believes that the hydrochloric acid industry is still oversupply, it is still early to pick up, and the upside of liquid chlorine prices for raw materials is limited. After this slight rebound, it is expected that the market outlook will continue its previous trend of low stability.
Analyze the current chemical market, Zhang Ming believes that the continuous high oil consolidation, the impact on the downstream is gradually reduced, organic chemical products due to adverse cost transmission, has begun to enter the overall consolidation of the dilemma. Looking ahead, Business Club expects that in the short to medium term, the chemical industry will continue to be dominated by minor shocks. It is relatively optimistic about the performance of the fluorspar-fluorine industrial chain, bromine chemical industry chain, and resource-based chemical minerals such as phosphate and titanium concentrates. .
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