Recently, the monthly report of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been mixed. The crude oil production of the organization is increasing, but the production reduction target has been reached. The rebound in the US dollar pressures oil prices.
On June 13, on the third working day of the current round, Zhongyu Information estimated that the change rate of crude oil was 0.02% and crude oil was valued at 75.244 US dollars/barrel, up by US$0.015/barrel from the benchmark price, corresponding to an increase of 1 yuan/ton. At 24 o'clock on the 25th of June, the zero price of refined oil was not adjusted. Zhongyu Information Monitoring's wholesale price of PetroChina and Sinopec in 30 major provinces, regions and municipalities in China was: PetroChina 92 ​​## gasoline was RMB 8,067/ton, which was RMB 4/ton lower than the previous working day; China's No. 5# diesel was RMB 6,944 / Ton, which was RMB 3/t lower than the previous working day; Gasoline and diesel prices were RMB 1,599/t and RMB 1,151/t lower than the average retail sales.
Affected by the rise of crude oil to a high level, the domestic refined oil wholesale market experienced a surge in March, April and May, and it recently turned into a downtrend channel. Since petrol-diesel prices hovered to a virtual high level in mid-to-late May, the industry resisted the high prices and the replenishment sentiment was inhibited. Moreover, there was ample supply of upstream and downstream users during the previous period of bullish oil prices. After the reversal of crude oil prices, the industry took risks. Most actively reduced their inventory holdings, and repurchasing activities decreased again. Therefore, in the absence of transaction support, the main gasoline and diesel prices continue to decline.
Jin Peng, a product oil analyst, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that in the later period, international crude oil may be dominated by wide fluctuations. The news is difficult to support the domestic refined oil wholesale market. In addition, on the supply side, after the completion of the Shanghe Qingdao Summit, the impact on the start-up rate and transportation of the refinery will disappear, and the main operation rate of refineries will also gradually increase, and domestic supply is expected to expand. In general, high-temperature weather has entered the country, and the operating rate of infrastructure projects has gradually declined. As a whole, the downstream demand for diesel oil in the later period has been gradually declining, and domestic supply has once again become loose. In the high-temperature weather of gasoline, the amount of air-conditioning oil is expected to increase, but supply has also increased. From this point of view, it is expected that the domestic refined oil wholesale market will be loosened in the later period, and gas station profit is expected to continue to expand.
Yang Xiaofen, an analyst at Zhongyu Information Oil Refinery, said in an interview with the “Securities Daily†reporter that yesterday’s international crude oil prices were mixed, and the domestic gasoline and diesel markets in all regions were on a wait-and-see atmosphere. Main market conditions maintained the overall trend of steady adjustment. More than 20 yuan / ton to 50 yuan / ton within the slight adjustment. The recent trend of the crude oil market is weak, it is difficult to boost the market's trading atmosphere, and the main market sales are under pressure, and more preferential policies are maintained. Shandong's refining market as a whole showed a slight upward trend, mainly due to the concentration of overhauled refineries in the region and the tight supply of resources. In the wheat harvest season, the demand in the terminal market increased, and the price support surface was slightly pushed up.
Yang Xiaofen said that due to the increase in API crude oil inventories in the United States, Saudi oil production in Russia began to increase, and the Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to suppress the oil market, crude oil prices may still fluctuate and decline. The refined oil price adjustment window may appear to be stranded expectations, or will gradually appear as a downward adjustment expectation. The operating mentality is difficult to boost, but supported by the tight supply of resources in some regions, the market will be very willing to price, and it is expected that the market will continue to be dominated by narrow fluctuations in the short term.
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